黑色板块日报-20250527

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and weak expectations may not have changed substantially. For steel products, it is recommended to short and conduct short - term trading, with an exit strategy if the price rebounds into the recent trading range. For iron ore, if a production - restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress demand, and the current port inventory decline is slowing down, exerting pressure on futures prices [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory I. Threaded Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Situation: Policy - side positives have basically been realized, and the easing of Sino - US trade tensions is reflected in prices. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. New construction area has dropped significantly, and the year - on - year decline in completed and under - construction areas remains large. Last week, steel production increased, factory inventory rose, social inventory continued to decline, total inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined. Rumors of production restrictions had limited impact on the market. Steel enterprises believe that the industry needs to cut production, but lack the motivation to do so voluntarily [2] - Technical Analysis: The price has broken through the recent trading range downward [2] - Operation Suggestion: Short and conduct short - term trading. If the price rebounds into the recent trading range, close the short position in time [2] - Data Summary: - Prices: Threaded bar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have declined. For example, the threaded bar futures contract closed at 3004 yuan/ton, down 2.12% from last week; the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3138 yuan/ton, down 2.15% from last week [3] - Production and Inventory: 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate was 84.15%, down 0.47 percentage points from last week; daily average pig iron output was 243.6 million tons, down 0.48% from last week. National building material steel mills' threaded bar production was 231.48 million tons, up 2.19% from last week; hot - rolled coil production was 305.68 million tons, down 2.02% from last week. Five major steel products' social inventory was 960.56 million tons, down 3.33% from last week; factory inventory was 437.98 million tons, up 0.23% from last week [3] II. Iron Ore - Market Situation: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable. Last week, the pig iron output of 247 steel mills exceeded 2.436 billion tons, with a larger decline rate compared to the previous period. If a production - restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress iron ore demand. As the downstream consumption peak has ended and the apparent demand for steel has declined, it is expected that pig iron production will further decline in the near future. On the supply side, global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The current port inventory decline is slowing down, and the proportion of traded ore inventory is relatively high, exerting pressure on futures prices [4] - Technical Analysis: The futures price has dropped significantly but is still within the recent trading range [4] - Data Summary: - Prices: Iron ore spot and futures prices have declined. For example, the DCE iron ore futures contract settled at 706.5 yuan/dry ton, down 2.21% from last week; the SGX iron ore contract settled at 97.07 US dollars/dry ton, down 4.07% from last week [4] - Supply and Demand: Australian iron ore shipments were 1.7711 billion tons, up 7.41% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 725.6 million tons, down 3.40% from last week. The total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.0588 billion tons, up 0.09% from last week; the average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 343.19 million tons, up 1.06% from last week. Port inventory was 13.98783 billion tons, down 1.26% from last week [4] III. Industry News - Coking enterprises decided to avoid blind production increases, control production to stabilize coke prices, and appropriately reduce coal inventory. Steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin initiated a second round of coke price cuts of 50 - 55 yuan/ton [6] - The total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2.3441 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 637,000 tons; at 45 ports, it was 2.1513 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 million tons; at six northern ports, it was 1.0588 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 1 million tons [6] - The global iron ore shipment volume was 3.1887 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.591 billion tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2.7292 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 231,000 tons. Australia's shipment volume was 1.9708 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.43 billion tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1.7425 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.635 billion tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 758.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 million tons [6]