宝城期货资讯早班车-20250527

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The future demand for fixed - income assets may exceed supply, potentially leading to an asset shortage and driving interest rates down. The 10 - year treasury bond yield could reach 1.4% - 1.5% this year [23]. - Fundamental factors are difficult to break the narrow - range fluctuation pattern of the bond market. A decline in deposit rates is short - term positive for non - bank allocation demand. It is recommended to focus on 3 - and 5 - year credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds [23]. - Adding 10% - 20% financial bonds to a credit or treasury bond portfolio can optimize the portfolio by reducing volatility and drawdown with little impact on returns [23]. - The Chinese government's macro - economic control policies have led to an improvement in economic indicators, and Moody's decision to maintain China's sovereign credit rating is a positive reflection of China's economic prospects [2][11]. - The appreciation of the RMB is beneficial to the Chinese stock market, and Goldman Sachs is overweight on Chinese stocks due to the potential exchange - rate resilience of the RMB [11][28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - In Q1 2025, GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter and higher than the same period last year [1]. - In April 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, down from 50.5% in the previous month and 50.4% in the same period last year [1]. - In April 2025, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, down from 50.8% in the previous month and 51.2% in the same period last year [1]. - In April 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12%, 1.5%, and 8% respectively, with M0 and M2 increasing compared to the previous month and M1 decreasing [1]. - In April 2025, the CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but lower than the same period last year; the PPI was - 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the previous month and the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Chinese government aims to improve the modern enterprise system, including salary systems and corporate governance of listed companies [2][10]. - OPEC + may increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July to target the US shale oil market [2]. - As of May 26, 70.05 million mu of summer wheat had been harvested, and over 17 million sets of agricultural machinery will be used for the "Three Summers" operations [3]. 3.2.2 Main Varieties - Cast aluminum alloy futures will be listed on June 10, with a trading margin of 9% (8% for hedging) and a daily price limit of ±7% (doubled on the first day) [4]. - In April, Hong Kong's total gold exports to the Chinese mainland were 58.61 tons, up from 21.071 tons previously [4]. - On May 26, the global thermal coal price hit a four - and - a - half - year low due to oversupply and high inventories [6]. - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister said that OPEC + has not discussed a July production increase [7]. - Iraq's oil exports in April were 100.95 million barrels [8]. - Iran set the price of Iranian light crude oil for Asia in June at Oman/Dubai crude oil price plus $1.80 per barrel [8]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 25 increased by 11.6% month - on - month [9]. 3.3 Financial News - On May 26, the central bank conducted 382 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 247 billion yuan [9]. - Third - round, fourth - batch central environmental protection inspections have been launched in 5 provinces and 3 state - owned enterprises [11]. - On May 26, the on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar rose, breaking through the 7.17 mark [11]. - This year, nearly 3,000 idle land parcels with a total area of over 133 million square meters are planned to be repurchased using special bonds [12]. - From January to April, the proportion of residential sales of over 120 square meters increased in 20 out of 30 representative cities [12]. - Credit bond ETFs are expected to be included in the repurchase collateral pool [12]. - As of April 30, the on - time disclosure ratios of 2024 annual reports and 2025 Q1 reports of debt - financing tool issuers and credit enhancement institutions were 99.80% and 99.65% respectively [13]. - Mitsubishi UFJ Bank (China) will adjust RMB deposit rates from June 3 [13]. - Inner Mongolia Rural Commercial Bank was established through a new merger and will open on May 27 [13]. - Hubei aims to transform the real - estate industry and ensure its stable operation [14]. - Guizhou will carry out special rectification and actions to solve problems faced by enterprises [14]. - The four major Japanese life insurance companies had a bond portfolio floating loss of about $60 billion last fiscal year [15]. - Multiple factors may trigger a "bond vigilante" action [15]. - There are significant events in the bond market, such as debt restructuring and bond suspension [16]. 3.4 Bond Market - Treasury bond futures mostly rose, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined. The overnight and 7 - day inter - bank repo rates showed different trends [17]. - In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rose while others fell. The Wande real - estate bond 30 index declined slightly, and the Wande high - yield urban investment bond index rose [18]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index both declined [18]. - Most money - market interest rates showed an upward trend, while Shibor short - term rates were mixed [18][19]. - The winning yields of some financial bonds issued by policy banks were announced [20]. - European bond yields generally declined [20]. 3.5 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose by 52 points at the 16:30 close, and the central parity rate was raised by 86 points [22]. - The US dollar index declined, and most non - US currencies rose [22]. 3.6 Stock Market - The CSRC will promote the introduction of a supervision and management regulation for listed companies to improve corporate governance [27]. - On Monday, the A - share market had a narrow - range adjustment. The controllable nuclear fusion concept rose, while pharmaceutical and automobile stocks declined [27]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and related indices declined. Automobile stocks fell, and nuclear - power stocks rose [27]. - Southbound funds had a net sell - off of HK$1.5 billion. Tencent and Alibaba were net sold, while Meituan was net bought [28]. - Central Huijin will better perform its duties in managing state - owned financial capital [28]. - Goldman Sachs is overweight on Chinese stocks due to the potential appreciation of the RMB [28]. - Meituan's Q1 revenue and adjusted net profit exceeded market expectations [28].