有色金属日报-20250527

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals still support copper prices, and Shanghai copper is expected to maintain a volatile pattern before the holiday [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to factors such as inventory changes and export incentives [2]. - Nickel is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - to - long term due to supply surplus, although cost support limits the downside [3][4]. - Tin prices are expected to have greater volatility, and range trading is recommended, with attention to supply and demand changes [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basic Metals Copper - As of May 26, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract rose 0.57% to 78,270 yuan/ton. Macro disturbances are weakening, but Sino - US trade uncertainties remain. Mine - end disruptions continue, and the cost pressure of smelters limits price decline. Consumption in May weakened compared to April but is better than the same period. Social inventory is at a low level, and there may be some restocking sentiment before the Dragon Boat Festival [1]. Aluminum - As of May 26, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract fell 0.05% to 20,155 yuan/ton. The revocation of mining licenses in Guinea has escalated. Alumina operating capacity is expected to gradually recover, and electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is increasing. The downstream开工率 is declining, but aluminum inventory has been unexpectedly depleted, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate [2]. Nickel - As of May 26, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract fell 0.08% to 122,780 yuan/ton. The nickel ore market in Indonesia is tight, and the downstream nickel - iron industry has losses. The pure nickel is in surplus, and stainless steel demand is average. The cost of nickel is firm, but there is a long - term supply surplus, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [3][4]. Tin - As of May 26, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract fell 0.24% to 264,050 yuan/ton. Supply has recovered, and prices are oscillating. Production and imports have increased, and the semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are strong expectations of mine - end resumption. Prices are expected to fluctuate more, and range trading is recommended [5]. 2. Spot Transaction Summary Copper - Domestic spot copper prices rose. Due to limited restocking demand before the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream procurement was cautious, and only low - priced goods were purchased, with a slight increase in premiums [6]. Aluminum - The spot aluminum market was stable with a slight upward trend. Tight arrivals and inventory depletion supported sellers' price - holding sentiment, but some sellers increased shipments, and overall trading remained active [7]. Other Metals - For zinc, the spot market trading was mediocre, with high premiums due to pre - holiday restocking. For lead, the spot market trading was light. For nickel, the spot market trading was light due to the weekly effect. For tin, the spot market trading was average, and merchants were mainly in a wait - and - see mode [9][11][12][13]. 3. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, while lead futures warehouse receipts increased, and zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. LME copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, and tin inventory remained unchanged [15].