宝城期货国债期货早报-20250527

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", with an overall view of "interval oscillation". The short - term possibility of further interest rate cuts is low [1]. - Overall, it is expected that treasury bond futures will mainly maintain an oscillatory consolidation in the short term. The bottom of treasury bond futures has strong support, but the upside space is limited [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is oscillation on the weak side, and the overall view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the short - term possibility of further interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is oscillation on the weak side, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures continued the oscillatory trend yesterday with narrow - range consolidation throughout the day. In the long - term, policy is moderately loose, and the current treasury bond price basically has no implied interest rate cut expectation, so the bottom of treasury bond futures has strong support. However, due to the need to wait for economic indicators to verify the policy effect, the credit demand of the domestic real - sector is weak, and the hawkish Fed's monetary policy suppresses the exchange rate, the short - term possibility of further interest rate cuts in China is low, and the upside space of treasury bond futures is limited [3].