国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250527

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Each commodity is given a short - term trend outlook, such as "oscillating", "rising", "falling", etc. [2][4] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Expected to oscillate and decline. The trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively weak upward trend. Yesterday, the prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot showed different degrees of decline, and the trading volume and positions also changed. [2][6][9] - Silver: Expected to follow gold and rise. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot also had corresponding changes, and the trading volume and positions were adjusted. [2][6][9] Base Metals - Copper: Due to mine - end disturbances, the price is expected to rise. The trend strength is 1. Yesterday, the prices of domestic and international copper futures increased, and the inventory decreased. The spot price also rose, and the spread changed. [2][11][13] - Aluminum: Expected to oscillate within a range. The trend strength is 0. The prices of domestic and international aluminum futures and spot, trading volume, positions, and inventory all had different degrees of change. [2][14][16] - Alumina: Expected to continue to decline. The trend strength is 0. The price of alumina futures decreased, and the trading volume and positions changed. [2][14][16] - Zinc: The price is expected to rise due to refinery disturbances, but the sustainability may be limited. The trend strength is 0. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures and spot, trading volume, positions, and inventory all had corresponding changes. [2][17][18] - Lead: Expected to oscillate within a range. The trend strength is 0. The prices of domestic and international lead futures and spot, trading volume, positions, and inventory all had different degrees of change. [2][20][21] - Tin: Expected to oscillate in a narrow range. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a relatively weak downward trend. The prices of domestic and international tin futures and spot decreased, and the trading volume and positions changed. [2][23][26] - Nickel: The price is suppressed by weak expectations but supported by real - world costs. The trend strength is 0. The prices of domestic and international nickel futures and spot, trading volume, positions, and inventory all had corresponding changes. [2][28][33] - Stainless Steel: With both supply and demand weakening marginally, the steel price is expected to oscillate. The trend strength is 0. The price of stainless - steel futures, trading volume, and positions changed. [2][28][33] Energy - Iron Ore: The downstream demand has reached a phased peak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. The trend strength is - 1. The price of iron - ore futures decreased, and the spot price also declined. [2][40] - Coke: Expected to oscillate at the bottom. The trend strength is 0. The price of coke futures and spot, trading volume, positions, and inventory all had different degrees of change. [2][50][52] - Coking Coal: With the arrival of environmental protection supervision teams, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The trend strength is 0. The price of coking - coal futures and spot, trading volume, positions, and inventory all had corresponding changes. [2][50][52] - Thermal Coal: With the increase in coal mine inventory, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. The trend strength is 0. The price of thermal - coal futures and spot, trading volume, positions, and inventory all had different degrees of change. [2][53][55] Chemical Products - Carbonate Lithium: Under strong supply pressure, the price is expected to be under pressure. The trend strength is 0. The price of carbonate - lithium futures and spot decreased, and the trading volume and positions changed. [2][34][36] - Industrial Silicon: The futures price has dropped significantly, and attention should be paid to supply changes. The trend strength is - 1. The price of industrial - silicon futures and spot decreased, and the trading volume and positions changed. [2][37][39] - Polysilicon: The monthly spread is widening, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The trend strength is - 1. The price of polysilicon futures decreased, and the trading volume and positions changed. [2][37][39] Others - Log: Expected to oscillate weakly. The trend strength is - 1. The price of log futures decreased, and the trading volume and positions increased. [2][56][60]