国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250527

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: There are still risks in the producing areas, and it is oscillating to find the bottom [2][6]. - Soybean oil: The driving force of the soybean system is weak, and it is oscillating within a range [2][6]. - Soybean meal: The U.S. soybeans were closed overnight, and the Dalian soybean meal is oscillating [2][15]. - Soybean: The futures price is oscillating weakly [2][15]. - Corn: It is oscillating [2][18]. - Sugar: It is oscillating in a narrow range [2][22]. - Cotton: The demand fails to meet expectations, and the cotton price has dropped slightly [2][27]. - Eggs: Wait for the verification of culling after the Dragon Boat Festival [2][32]. - Pigs: Passive inventory accumulation has formed, and a trend reverse spread strategy is adopted [2][34]. - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2][38]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Tracking: The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 7,954 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.65%, and 7,982 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.35%. The closing price of the soybean oil main contract was 7,704 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.90%, and 7,714 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.13% [6]. - Macro and Industry News: From May 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.73%. Exports from May 1 - 25 increased by 7.3% (AmSpec) and 34.71% (SGS) compared to the same period last month. Datagro expects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 1.72 billion tons [7][9][10]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0 [13]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Tracking: The closing price of DCE soybean 2507 was 4,144 yuan/ton during the day session, down 1.22%, and 4,137 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.53%. The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2509 was 2,950 yuan/ton during the day session, unchanged, and 2,956 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.31% [15]. - Macro and Industry News: The U.S. market was closed on Monday due to a public holiday. Datagro raised Brazil's soybean production forecast to a record 1.72 billion tons [17]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and that of soybean is -1 (only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract during the day session on the reporting day) [17]. Corn - Fundamental Tracking: The closing price of C2507 was 2,318 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.39%, and 2,322 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.17%. The closing price of C2509 was 2,344 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.34%, and 2,348 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.17% [19]. - Macro and Industry News: The northern corn collection price was 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton (new crop listing), and the price in Guangdong Shekou was 2,370 - 2,390 yuan/ton [20]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [21]. Sugar - Fundamental Tracking: The raw sugar price was 17.31 cents/pound, down 0.07%. The mainstream spot price was 6,140 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [22]. - Macro and Industry News: The U.S. dollar index fell below 100 again. Brazil's crushing progress slowed down year - on - year. The USDA expects the global sugar production to increase by 4.73% in the 25/26 season [22]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of sugar is -1 [25]. Cotton - Fundamental Tracking: The closing price of CF2509 was 13,385 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.19%, and 13,285 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.75%. The closing price of CY2507 was 19,580 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.36%, and 19,465 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.59% [27]. - Macro and Industry News: The cotton spot trading was light, and the mainstream basis remained firm. The cotton yarn market was gradually weakening, and the confidence of spinning enterprises was low [28]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [31]. Eggs - Fundamental Tracking: The closing price of egg 2507 was 2,943 yuan/500 kg, down 1.01%. The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,766 yuan/500 kg, up 0.11% [32]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [32]. Pigs - Fundamental Tracking: The spot price in Henan was 14,450 yuan/ton, in Sichuan was 14,200 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong was 15,340 yuan/ton. The closing price of pig 2507 was 13,260 yuan/ton, and that of pig 2509 was 13,600 yuan/ton [34]. - Market Logic: Passive inventory accumulation occurred in mid - to - late May. If the second - fattening policy is fully implemented, it will drive slow inventory reduction. Long - term reverse spread strategies for 7 - 1, 9 - 1, and 11 - 1 can be laid out [36]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of pigs is 0 [35]. Peanuts - Fundamental Tracking: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 8,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The closing price of PK510 was 8,252 yuan/ton, down 0.75%, and that of PK511 was 8,164 yuan/ton, down 0.75% [38]. - Spot Market Focus: In Henan, the price of Baisha general peanuts in Huangludian was about 4.6 yuan/jin, and in Kaifeng, the price of large peanut general peanuts was about 4.3 yuan/jin. The supply in most producing areas was low, and the price was stable [39]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [40].