银河期货原油期货早报-20250527

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Short - term geopolitical disturbances in the oil market are frequent, with significant uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine and US - Iran situations. In the short term, the oil price is expected to fluctuate, with Brent ranging from $60 to $70 per barrel. In the long term, if the price remains low in the second quarter and the hurricane season in the US in the third quarter is stronger than average, there is a driving force for the oil price to rebound [2]. - The asphalt market is relatively strong among oil products. With limited supply and low inventory, the peak - season expectation is relatively optimistic, and the BU main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3400 - 3600 [5]. - The domestic liquefied gas market is under pressure during the summer off - season, with a weak fundamental situation due to increased supply and weak demand [7]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the near - month crack spread and monthly spread are at a high level, and the spot premium has started to rebound. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply continues to increase while the downstream demand is still weak [9]. - The natural gas price is expected to rebound due to increased demand intensity. In Europe, the gas price is supported by maintenance work, and the storage level is lower than last year [12][13]. - The PX market has an expected increase in supply, and the downstream PTA supply is also expected to rise, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the PX market is expected to be in a high - level shock [15]. - The PTA market has an expected increase in supply, a weakening export expectation, and a planned reduction in polyester production. The supply - demand relationship is weakening, and the processing fee may be compressed, with a high - level shock expected [18]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to maintain a tight - balance pattern in June, with a high - level shock in price [20]. - The short - fiber market has a limited supply loss, and the downstream has a pre - holiday restocking expectation, with a strong support for the processing fee, and a high - level shock is expected [21]. - The bottle - chip market has a gradually abundant supply and weak downstream receiving willingness, and the processing fee may be suppressed, with a shock consolidation expected [22]. - The styrene market has an expected increase in supply and a low - level increase in port inventory, with a weakening supply - demand relationship and a shock - weakening trend [24]. - The plastic and PP markets are weak in the short and medium term due to new production capacity and weak downstream demand [27]. - The PVC market is in a long - term supply - demand surplus pattern, and the short - term price is expected to be weak. The caustic soda market is short - term stable, but the medium - term direction is bearish [30][31]. - The soda ash market has an expected increase in supply, weak demand in the medium term, and a bearish trend with a slow decline [33][34]. - The glass market is in the off - season, with weak downstream demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to cost reduction and factory cold - repair in the medium term [36][37]. - The urea market has a large domestic supply and weak demand, and the short - term futures and spot are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the factory's order - receiving situation [38][39]. - The methanol market has a large supply and stable downstream demand, with a port inventory increase. It is recommended to short on rebounds [42][43]. - The corrugated paper and box - board paper markets have an increase in downstream replenishment enthusiasm, but the terminal demand is weak, and there is over - capacity pressure on small and medium - sized paper enterprises [44]. - The offset paper market has a stable supply and weak demand, and the price increase is difficult to transmit [46]. - The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increased port inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see [48]. - The pulp market has a complex influencing factor situation, and it is recommended to wait and see for the SP main contract [52]. - The natural rubber market has a decline in production and consumption in April, and the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to hold short positions for the RU main contract and try long positions for the NR main contract [54][55]. - The butadiene rubber market has an increase in inventory and a bearish factor for the BR main contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [58]. Grouped by Industry Oil - Market Review - NYMEX crude futures were closed for the US Memorial Day holiday, Brent2507 contract was at $64.74, down $0.04 per barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%. China INE crude futures main contract 2507 rose 1.7 to 456.4 yuan/barrel, and fell 0.5 to 455.9 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - Related Information - As of the week ending May 20, the net long positions of traders in US light crude and Brent crude futures and options decreased by 631 lots, equivalent to a reduction of 631,000 barrels of crude oil [1]. - Eight OPEC+ countries that promised additional voluntary oil production cuts will hold a meeting on May 31 to decide on July's production [2]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term shock, medium - term weak [3]. - Arbitrage: Gasoline cracking weakens, diesel cracking weakens [4]. - Options: Wait and see [4]. Asphalt - Market Review - BU2507 closed at 3507 points at night (- 0.23%), BU2509 closed at 3461 points at night (- 0.20%) [4]. - On May 26, the spot price of asphalt in Shandong was 3450 - 3800 yuan/ton, in East China was 3520 - 3590 yuan/ton, and in South China was 3380 - 3500 yuan/ton [4]. - Related Information - At the end of the month, with the reduction of some expired contracts, the quotation of individual brands increased slightly. The demand in the north was stable, and the supply increased slightly. The demand in the south was affected by rainfall [4]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: High - level shock [5]. - Arbitrage: The asphalt - crude oil spread fluctuates at a high level [5]. - Options: Wait and see [5]. Liquefied Gas - Market Review - PG2507 closed at 4075 (+ 0.27%) at night, PG2508 closed at 4004 (+ 0.18%) at night [6]. - The spot price of domestic liquefied gas in South China was 4770 - 4880 yuan/ton, and the imported gas was 4820 - 5000 yuan/ton [6]. - Related Information - The South China market was stable, and the Shandong market had a small increase. The East China market was mainly stable [6][7]. - Trading Strategy - Not clearly mentioned in the report. Fuel Oil - Market Review - FU07 contract closed at 2976 (- 0.73%) at night, LU07 closed at 3501 (- 0.26%) at night [9]. - In the Singapore paper - trading market, the high - sulfur Jun/July spread decreased from 17.5 to 16.5 dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Jun/July spread increased from 8.5 to 8.8 dollars/ton [9]. - Related Information - The Asian ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil market eased, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continued to rise. The fuel oil cracking spread in Asia decreased last week [9]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see [10]. - Arbitrage: LU7 - 8 reverse arbitrage should stop profit at a low level [12]. - Options: Not clearly mentioned in the report. Natural Gas - Market Review - On Friday, the HH contract closed at 3.344 (+ 0%), the TTF closed at 37.253 (+ 2.2%), and the JKM closed at 12.585 (+ 0%) [12]. - Related Information - Last week, the US natural gas inventory increased by 120 bcf, higher than expected. The US natural gas production increased slightly to 106.1 bcf/d [12]. - Trading Strategy - HH unilateral: Buy on dips. TTF unilateral: Shock - strengthening [14]. - Arbitrage: Not clearly mentioned in the report. - Options: Not clearly mentioned in the report. PX - Market Review - The PX2509 main contract closed at 6674 (+ 0.33%) during the day and 6604 (- 1.05%) at night [14]. - The 6 - month MOPJ was estimated at $560/ton CFR. The PX price rose to $834/ton [14]. - Related Information - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. An East - China PX plant's disproportionation unit restarted, and a 70 - million - ton PX unit in the Northeast was restarting [15]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: High - level shock [16]. - Arbitrage: Long PX and short PTA [16]. - Options: Double - selling options [16]. PTA - Market Review - The TA509 main contract closed at 4724 (+ 0.17%) during the day and 4690 (- 0.72%) at night [16]. - The spot price of PTA in May was at a premium of 165 - 170 over the September contract [16]. - Related Information - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. A 100 - million - ton PTA unit in Southwest China restarted [17]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: High - level shock [18]. - Arbitrage: Long PX and short PTA [18]. - Options: Double - selling options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review - The EG2509 main contract closed at 4393 (- 0.23%) during the day and 4357 (- 0.82%) at night [18]. - The spot price of ethylene glycol was at a premium of 136 - 142 yuan/ton over the September contract [19]. - Related Information - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The inventory of ethylene glycol in East - China main ports decreased by 5.6 million tons [19]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: High - level shock [20]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [20]. - Options: Sell call options [20]. Short - Fiber - Market Review - The PF2507 main contract closed at 6430 (- 0.31%) during the day and 6394 (- 0.56%) at night [20]. - The price of direct - spinning polyester short - fiber in Fujian was stable, and the downstream purchased on demand [20]. - Related Information - The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The average production and sales of direct - spinning polyester short - fiber were 45% [21]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: High - level shock [21]. - Arbitrage: Short PTA and long PF [21]. - Options: Wait and see [21]. Bottle - Chip - Market Review - The PR2507 main contract closed at 6006 (+ 0.30%) during the day and 5976 (- 0.50%) at night [22]. - The trading volume of the polyester bottle - chip market was light [22]. - Related Information - The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was mostly stable, and a 20 - million - ton polyester bottle - chip unit in East - China stopped for maintenance [22]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Shock consolidation [23]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [23]. - Options: Sell call options [23]. Styrene - Market Review - The EB2507 main contract closed at 7195 (- 1.18%) during the day and 7110 (- 1.18%) at night [23]. - The price of styrene in Jiangsu in May was 7725 - 7800 yuan/ton [23]. - Related Information - As of May 26, the styrene inventory in East - China main ports increased by 2.25 million tons to 7.46 million tons. A 40 - million - ton styrene unit of Hanwha Total was shut down, and a 65 - million - ton unit was shut down due to a fault [24]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Shock - weakening [25]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [25]. - Options: Sell call options [25]. Plastic and PP - Market Review - The mainstream transaction price of LLDPE in North China was 7170 - 7400 yuan/ton, and that of PP in North China was 7020 - 7200 yuan/ton [25]. - Related Information - The PE maintenance ratio was 21.8%, an increase of 3 percentage points, and the PP maintenance ratio was 18.9%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points [26]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Weak in the short and medium term, hold short positions [27]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review - The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly adjusted, and the caustic soda price in Shandong increased slightly [27]. - Related Information - Shandong alumina manufacturers increased the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda. The price of some caustic soda products of Jinling changed [28][29]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: PVC holds short positions, caustic soda is short - term stable and medium - term bearish [32]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [32]. - Options: Wait and see [32]. Soda Ash - Market Review - The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1254 yuan/ton during the day and 1239 yuan at night [32]. - The spot price of soda ash in Shahe was 1250 yuan/ton [32]. - Related Information - As of May 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 7.45 million tons to 160.23 million tons [33]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Bearish, slow decline [35]. - Arbitrage: Short soda ash and long glass [35]. - Options: Wait and see [35]. Glass - Market Review - The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1019 yuan/ton during the day and 1016 yuan/ton at night [35]. - The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1156 yuan/ton [35]. - Related Information - A production line in Shahe was restarted. The market in East China was weak, and the price in Central China was mostly stable [35][36]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Price shock - weakening [38]. - Arbitrage: Long glass and short soda ash [38]. - Options: Wait and see [38]. Urea - Market Review - The urea futures closed at 1816 (- 1.14%). The spot price of urea decreased [38]. - Related Information - On May 26, the daily production of the urea industry was 20.68 million tons, an increase of 0.22 million tons. The current inventory increased from 80 million tons to 91 million tons [38]. - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term weak [40]. - Arbitrage: 91 positive arbitrage should be deployed at a low level [40]. -