金信期货日刊-20250527

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 26, the main contract of rebar futures fell below 3000 yuan/ton, hitting a new low since September 12, 2024, due to multiple factors including supply - demand, cost, and macro - economic environment. In the future, with lackluster off - season consumption, EAF steel mills may cut production, and the steel market is in a low - valuation area, presenting short - term long opportunities from oversold rebounds [3]. - Today, the A - share market rose and then fell. The three major indices (Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index) closed in the red, while the CSI 1000 closed strongly in the green. The capital flow shrank by 14.56 billion compared to last Friday, and the index continued to show a weak high - level oscillating pattern [6][7]. - Gold's internal and external markets broke through a small platform upwards, with the low on May 15 confirmed as the end of this wave of adjustment. It is expected to rise to the high on May 9. There is resistance near a certain point, and it is recommended to wait for adjustments to buy on dips instead of chasing the rise [10][11]. - In May, due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, iron ore faces large supply - surplus pressure, and domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season. The weak reality increases the risk of high valuation. Technically, it hit a new low today, and a bearish oscillating view is taken [15]. - For glass, demand growth depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Currently, daily melting is at a low level, spot sales have improved slightly, but factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders lack restocking motivation. Technically, it showed narrow - range fluctuations today, and a bearish oscillating view is taken [17][18]. - For PTA, the PX plant operating rate remains low, and major manufacturers like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shenghong plan to conduct maintenance in May, leading to tight spot circulation. Meanwhile, the downstream polyester industry has poor demand, suppressing the PTA futures price. Technically, it shows signs of a phased peak [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Rebar futures price decline is due to complex supply (blast furnace production cuts but EAF restarts) and weak demand (slowdown in manufacturing investment, low real - estate sales). Cost pressure comes from falling coking coal prices and increased iron ore shipments. In the future, off - season consumption is poor, and EAF steel mills may cut production [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The A - share market was volatile today. The capital flow shrank by 14.56 billion compared to last Friday, and the index maintained a weak high - level oscillating pattern [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold broke through a small platform upwards, with the low on May 15 as the end of the adjustment. It is expected to rise to the high on May 9. Wait for dips to buy instead of chasing the rise [10][11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - In May, iron ore has supply - surplus pressure due to reduced exports and increased shipments, and domestic demand is entering the off - season. Technically, it hit a new low, with a bearish oscillating view [15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Glass demand growth depends on real - estate policies. Currently, daily melting is low, sales have improved slightly, but inventories are high, and downstream restocking motivation is weak. Technically, it showed narrow - range fluctuations, with a bearish oscillating view [17][18]. Technical Analysis - PTA - PX plant operating rate is low, and major manufacturers plan maintenance in May, causing tight spot circulation. Downstream polyester demand is poor, suppressing PTA prices. Technically, it shows signs of a phased peak [21].