五矿期货早报有色金属-20250527

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by overseas trade negotiations and the precious - metal's safe - haven property. Short - term supply disruptions may drive copper prices up, but mid - term economic weakening risks need attention [1]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventories, but the overall commodity atmosphere and overseas trade situation may cause fluctuations. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, and the inter - month spread may widen [3]. - For lead, the decline in scrap battery prices has led to a drop in lead prices. If scrap production cuts deepen, lead prices may fall further [4]. - Zinc has an excess supply expectation. With the increase in zinc ingot inventory, zinc prices face a certain downward risk in the medium term [6]. - Tin's supply is temporarily tight but is expected to ease. Weak demand may cause the tin price center to shift down [8]. - Nickel has high macro - uncertainty. Although the short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, the subsequent trend is still bearish, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices lack a reversal driver. High supply and inventory, along with falling overseas concentrate prices, may lead to a weak operation of lithium prices [11]. - Alumina has an overcapacity situation, and the price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short - sell lightly on rallies [14]. - Stainless steel is in a weak and oscillating pattern due to low terminal demand and cost support from raw materials [16]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper - Market Performance: LME was closed, the dollar index declined slightly, and copper prices oscillated. The SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,450 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly, bonded - area inventory continued to decline, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased to 3.3 million tons [1]. - Price and Spread: The spot premium in Shanghai increased to 185 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread widened to 970 yuan/ton. The trading range for the SHFE copper main contract is 78,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 9,500 - 9,700 US dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - Market Performance: LME was closed, domestic inventory declined, and affected by the overall commodity atmosphere, aluminum prices oscillated. The SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,170 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory and Position: The SHFE aluminum weighted contract's open interest increased by 0.8 million hands to 52.6 million hands, and warehouse receipts decreased to 5.5 million tons. Aluminum ingot and rod social inventories continued to decline [3]. - Price and Spread: The spot premium in East China increased to 90 yuan/ton. The trading range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is 2,430 - 2,490 US dollars/ton [3]. Lead - Market Performance: The SHFE lead index fell 0.39% to 16,793 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory and Price: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 3.53 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased to 4.01 million tons. The refined - scrap spread was 50 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Market Performance: The SHFE zinc index fell 0.16% to 22,177 yuan/ton [6]. - Inventory and Export: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.18 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 7.88 million tons. In April, the export volume of unforged zinc alloys reached 1,280.23 tons [6]. - Outlook: Zinc ore has an excess expectation, and zinc prices may decline in the medium term [6]. Tin - Supply: The resumption of tin - mine production is slow. From January to April, domestic tin - ore imports decreased by 47.98% year - on - year. The supply of raw materials is tight in the short term [8]. - Demand: Downstream orders have not increased significantly, and only rigid - demand purchases are made [8]. - Inventory and Price: SMM's three - place inventory increased to 10,333 tons. The trading range for the domestic main contract is 260,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin, it is 30,000 - 35,000 US dollars/ton [8]. Nickel - Macro and Supply - Demand: Sino - US tariffs are temporarily eased, but the overall tax rate is still high. Refined nickel production is at a historical high, and stainless - steel market demand is weak [9]. - Raw Material Prices: Philippine laterite nickel - ore prices are stable, Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore prices are difficult to rise, and hydrometallurgical ore prices are stable after a decline [9]. - Product Prices: Nickel - iron prices are stable and rising, MHP prices are high in the short term, and nickel - sulfate prices are expected to strengthen. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the SHFE nickel main - contract price range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M of 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Movement: The MMLC index fell 1.34%, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices declined. The LC2507 contract price fell 1.41% [11]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory: Supply remains high, downstream restocking expectations are not fulfilled, and domestic social inventory is at a historical high [11]. - Outlook: Lithium prices may operate weakly, and the trading range for the LC2507 contract is 59,400 - 60,800 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - Market Performance: The alumina index fell 3.44% to 3,056 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 0.6 million hands [13]. - Inventory and Price: Spot prices in some regions increased, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.66 million tons. The Australian FOB price is stable, and the import profit and loss turned positive [13][14]. - Strategy: Short - selling lightly on rallies is recommended, with the domestic main - contract AO2509 trading range of 2,850 - 3,400 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - Market Performance: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,875 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The open interest decreased by 14,171 hands [16]. - Inventory and Price: Social inventory increased by 0.85%, and 300 - series inventory decreased by 3.42%. Spot prices in some markets were stable, and raw - material prices changed slightly [16]. - Outlook: The stainless - steel market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [16].