Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report - For stock indices, it is recommended to buy IF index futures on dips and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy. The risk - preference of the stock market has gradually recovered, and one can also choose the right time to go long on IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" [3][4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short term, the bond market will fluctuate mainly. In the long - term, the interest rate is expected to decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold long positions in gold and wait for significant price corrections to go long. For silver, it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. Copper may rise in the short - term, aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level, zinc has a potential downward risk, lead may decline further, nickel is recommended to be shorted on rallies, tin's price center may move down, lithium carbonate may run weakly, alumina is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and stainless steel is expected to continue the weak - oscillating pattern [10][11][12][15][16][17][19][20]. - For black building materials, steel has an over - supply pattern, and iron ore price may oscillate weakly. Glass and soda ash are expected to be weak, and for manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is advisable to wait and see. Industrial silicon may decline further [23][24][25][27][31]. - For energy chemicals, rubber is recommended to be operated with a neutral or short - biased mindset. Crude oil is in the range of short - selling on rallies. Methanol, urea, PVC are expected to decline, and ethylene glycol, PTA, and PX are in the raw material de - stocking logic. Polyethylene and polypropylene are expected to oscillate [37][39][40][41][42][43][45][46][47][49]. - For agricultural products, for live pigs, it is recommended to sell on rallies. For eggs, it is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts. For soybean and rapeseed meal, it is advisable to pay attention to different factors at different price levels. For oils and fats, they are expected to oscillate. For sugar, the price may decline, and for cotton, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [51][52][54][57][58][59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Indices - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.05%, the ChiNext Index down 0.80%, etc. The two - market trading volume decreased by 145.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day. There were multiple macro news, and the margin trading balance decreased by 7.529 billion yuan [2]. - The P/E ratios, P/B ratios, dividend yields, and futures basis ratios of different indices were provided. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF futures related to the economy on dips and also consider going long on IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" [3]. - The unilateral strategy is to buy IF index futures on dips, and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy [4]. Treasury Bonds - On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different price changes. There were news about tariff delay and Moody's maintaining China's sovereign credit rating. The central bank conducted a net injection of 24.7 billion yuan [5][6]. - The 5 - month LPR cut was in line with expectations. The short - term bond market will fluctuate mainly, and the long - term interest rate is expected to decline. It is advisable to enter on dips [6]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold fell 0.23%, and Shanghai silver rose 0.29%. COMEX gold rose 0.18%, and COMEX silver fell 0.16%. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.51%, and the US dollar index was 98.95 [7]. - The Japanese central bank's annual meeting is expected to increase the expectation of further interest rate hikes. The gold price remains strong, and the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds increased. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and wait and see for silver [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: LME was closed, and the SHFE copper price oscillated. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the spot was in short supply. The copper price may rise in the short - term and is affected by trade negotiations in the medium - term [10]. - Aluminum: LME was closed, and the SHFE aluminum price oscillated. The domestic inventory continued to decline. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. - Zinc: The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.16%. The zinc ore is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc price has a potential downward risk [12]. - Lead: The Shanghai lead index fell 0.39%. The recycled lead production decreased, and the lead price may decline further [13][14]. - Nickel: The nickel price oscillated. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [15]. - Tin: The tin price rebounded slightly. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price center may move down [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price may run weakly [17]. - Alumina: The index fell 3.44%. The spot price in some regions rose. It is recommended to short on rallies [19]. - Stainless Steel: The price fell slightly. The terminal demand is weak, and the cost provides support. It is expected to continue the weak - oscillating pattern [20]. Black Building Materials - Steel: The rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The over - supply pattern is difficult to change [22][23]. - Iron Ore: The futures price fell 1.60%. The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is weakening. The price may oscillate weakly [24]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass spot price fell, and the inventory decreased slightly. Soda ash supply decreased due to maintenance, and the demand is expected to decline. Both are expected to be weak [25][26]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Manganese silicon price fell 0.87%, and ferrosilicon price fell 0.11%. The demand is weakening, and it is advisable to wait and see [27][28]. - Industrial Silicon: The price fell 3.85%. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. The price may decline further [31][32]. Energy Chemicals - Rubber: The EU launched an anti - dumping investigation, and the price broke through the support level. It is recommended to operate with a neutral or short - biased mindset [35][37]. - Crude Oil: WTI rose 1.56%, Brent fell 0.34%, and INE rose 1.76%. The oil price is in the range of short - selling on rallies [38][39]. - Methanol: The 09 - contract price rose 2 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is improving. It is recommended to short on rallies [40]. - Urea: The 09 - contract price fell 11 yuan/ton. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to wait and see [41]. - PVC: The 09 - contract price rose 11 yuan. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [42]. - Ethylene Glycol: The 09 - contract price fell 10 yuan. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is high. The inventory is decreasing [43][44]. - PTA: The 09 - contract price rose 8 yuan. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is improving. The processing fee is supported [45]. - Para - Xylene: The 09 - contract price rose 22 yuan. It is in the maintenance season, and the demand is improving. It is expected to oscillate [46]. - Polyethylene PE: The price fell. The supply may be under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate [47][48]. - Polypropylene PP: The price fell. The supply has no new capacity in May, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [49]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The price rose in some regions. The short - term price is weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [51]. - Eggs: The price mostly rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly improving. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts [52]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The domestic futures price oscillated strongly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the cost is easy to rise. It is advisable to pay attention to different factors at different price levels [53][54]. - Oils and Fats: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data changed. The domestic inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate [55][57]. - Sugar: The futures price was weakly oscillating. The international supply may increase, and the domestic price may decline [58]. - Cotton: The futures price fell. The downstream opening rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [59].
五矿期货文字早评-20250527
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-05-27 02:54