GigaDevice(603986) 高盛·2025-05-27 02:50Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to GigaDevice, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [1][10][14]. Core Insights - GigaDevice is expected to enter a new growth cycle driven by product expansion into specialty DRAM, with strong EPS growth anticipated from market share gains in China [10]. - The NOR flash and MCU segments are projected to remain stable, with a modest recovery expected into 2025-2026 [10]. - The pricing for specialty DRAM has started to recover, driven by customer restocking and supply reductions as incumbents exit the legacy DRAM segment [4][10]. NOR Flash - Pricing for NOR flash is expected to be stable in 2025, with healthy near-term demand supported by consumption subsidies and increased content opportunities driven by AI [2]. - The automotive NOR flash market is projected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 40%-50%, although sales remain at a relatively low base [2]. MCU - MCU pricing is anticipated to remain largely stable in 2025, with growth driven by industrial customers' restocking demand and new market expansions [3]. - The automotive MCU sales are expected to take an additional year or two to reach meaningful scale due to the time required for product testing and qualifications [3]. Specialty DRAM - Specialty DRAM pricing has bottomed out and started recovering since March, with double-digit percentage increases observed in DDR4 8Gb and 4Gb products [4][7]. - Demand for specialty DRAM is expected to be bolstered by China's consumption subsidies on electronic products and new product expansions [7]. Customized DRAM - GigaDevice's customized DRAM leverages existing DDR4 production processes tailored to customer requirements, focusing on specialty applications such as automotive and industrial sectors [8]. - Revenue contribution from customized DRAM is expected to be limited in 2025 but could become more significant in the second half of 2026 to early 2027 [8]. Financial Projections - The revenue forecast for GigaDevice shows a growth trajectory from Rmb7,356 million in 2025 to Rmb14,200 million by 2027, indicating a compound annual growth rate [9]. - The expected EPS is projected to increase from Rmb1.65 in 2025 to Rmb5.17 by 2027, reflecting strong earnings growth [14].