中辉有色观点-20250527

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate and rise. The main drivers for the long - term bull market are the change in international order and the strategic allocation value is high. The price range is [766 - 787] [1]. - Silver is likely to have range - bound oscillations. The global economic demand may decline in 2025, and it is greatly affected by gold and base metals. The price range is [8200 - 8390] [1]. - Copper is predicted to rebound. In the short - term, it should pay attention to the pressure level at 79,000. In the long - term, it remains optimistic about copper. The short - term price range for SHFE copper is [78000, 79500] [1]. - Zinc is expected to rebound. In the short - term, the rebound space may be limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, it has an oversupply situation. The price range for SHFE zinc is [22400, 23000] [1]. - Lead is under pressure. The supply is expected to tighten slightly, but the downstream procurement is cautious, so the price rebound is under pressure. The price range is [16300 - 17000] [1]. - Tin is predicted to rebound. Overseas tin ore supply is gradually recovering, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The price range is [263000 - 269000] [1]. - Aluminum is facing pressure in its rebound. The alumina price is falling, and the downstream demand is differentiating. The price range is [19800 - 20300] [1]. - Nickel is under pressure. The cost support is weakening, and the terminal demand is weakening. The price range is [120000 - 125000] [1]. - Industrial silicon has a bearish outlook. The supply and demand surplus concern remains. The price range is [7500 - 7780] [1]. - Lithium carbonate is bearish. The supply surplus situation has not been reversed. The price range is [59000 - 61000] [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - The progress of the US - EU negotiation is repeated, and geopolitical issues in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine continue, providing support for gold [2]. Basic Logic - The US extended the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on EU goods to July 9, boosting market confidence. Japan's inflation has rebounded, and the UK's retail sales have increased significantly. The cease - fire in the Middle East is uncertain. The long - term trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - loose fiscal and monetary policies will support gold [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Short - term long positions can be arranged in the gold market, and control the position for long - term investment. Silver may continue to have range - bound oscillations in the short - term [8200, 8390] [4]. Copper Market Review - Overnight, copper opened lower and then rose, with an oscillatory recovery [6]. Industrial Logic - Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and the processing fee of copper concentrate is - 44.25 dollars/ton. The uncertainty of Trump's copper import tariff policy is reducing copper inventories outside the US. The demand for green copper in power, automotive, and home appliance sectors is strong, offsetting the weak demand in traditional sectors [6]. Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, copper is oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the pressure level at 79,000. Long positions should be held cautiously. In the long - term, it is optimistic about copper. The short - term price range for SHFE copper is [78000, 79500], and for LME copper is [9400, 9800] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc Market Review - Zinc rose by more than 2% overnight [8]. Industrial Logic - In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be loose. Recently, the unexpected extended maintenance of a smelter in South China and the maintenance of a mine in the Southwest have worried the market about supply disruptions. The downstream demand is weakening [8]. Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, zinc rebounds due to mine and smelter maintenance, but the rebound space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, short positions can be taken on rebounds. The price range for SHFE zinc is [22400, 23000], and for LME zinc is [2680, 2780] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum Market Review - The aluminum price rebounds under pressure, and the alumina price is falling [10]. Industrial Logic - The overseas macro - trade environment has eased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and the demand is differentiating. The supply of bauxite is high, and the alumina supply surplus situation continues [11]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE aluminum, focusing on inventory changes. The price range for the main contract is [19800 - 20500]. Alumina is operating in a low - level range [11]. Nickel Market Review - The nickel price is under pressure, and stainless steel rebounds and then falls [12]. Industrial Logic - The overseas macro - environment has eased. The increase in nickel ore shipments from the Philippines and the price cut in Indonesia have weakened the cost support. The domestic refined nickel production is increasing, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The stainless steel inventory has decreased, but the overall supply - demand surplus pressure still exists [13]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, focusing on downstream consumption. The price range for the main nickel contract is [120000 - 129000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2507 opened lower and fell, breaking through the 60,000 mark [14]. Industrial Logic - The supply surplus situation continues. The upstream smelter has high inventory pressure, and the demand is weak. The cost of lithium ore is still falling, and the negative feedback cycle continues [15]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold short positions. The price range is [59000 - 61000] [15].