港股市场策略周报2024.1.22-2024.1.28-20250527

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance this week, with the Hang Seng Technology Index declining while the Hang Seng Composite Index and Hang Seng Index continued to rise, recording increases of +1.13% and +1.10% respectively, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by -0.65% [4][14] - The materials sector saw the largest weekly gain, close to 6%, driven by safe-haven demand and rising gold prices. The healthcare sector also performed well, with a weekly increase of approximately 5.5%, supported by the innovation drug and biotechnology concepts [4][14] - As of the end of the week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile of the Hang Seng Composite Index rose to around 70%, aligning with the 5-year average valuation level [4] Market Valuation Level - The report highlights the valuation levels of key indices, indicating that the Hang Seng Composite Index is currently at a valuation level consistent with its historical averages [4][20] Buyback Statistics - The buyback market showed increased activity this week, with a total buyback amount of HKD 5.28 billion, significantly up from HKD 2.24 billion the previous week. The number of companies engaging in buybacks decreased slightly to 55 from 61 [28][31] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the buyback activity with a total of HKD 2.5 billion, followed by HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) with HKD 810 million, and Bilibili-W (9626.HK) with HKD 780 million [28][31] Southbound Fund Flow - The top net buy companies for the week included China Construction Bank (0939.HK) with a net buy amount of HKD 3.865 billion, China Mobile (0941.HK) with HKD 2.682 billion, and Meituan-W (3690.HK) with HKD 2.139 billion [35] - Conversely, Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) was the top net sell company, with a net sell amount of HKD 5.146 billion, followed by Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK) with HKD 1.584 billion [36] Macroeconomic Environment Tracking - The report notes that over 80% of the profits in the Hong Kong market come from Chinese companies, indicating a strong correlation between the Hong Kong market's fundamentals and the economic conditions in mainland China [40][41] - Key economic indicators include a 4.0% year-on-year growth in fixed asset investment for the first four months of the year, and a 5.1% year-on-year increase in retail sales for April [40][41] - The report also mentions that the People's Bank of China has lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points, which is expected to support economic activity [41][45] Market Outlook - The report expresses optimism for sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including automotive, consumer, electronics, and technology sectors. It also highlights the potential of undervalued state-owned enterprises and local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility stocks that may benefit from the interest rate cut cycle [4][45] - Caution is advised regarding sectors and companies with significant exposure to the U.S. market due to ongoing trade tensions [4][45]