银河期货每日早盘观察-20250527

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is generally oversupplied, with Brazil having a bumper harvest and domestic crushing being average. The sugar market is expected to face a larger supply surplus in 2025/26. The short - term outlook for the palm oil market is to continue increasing production and inventory. The corn market is expected to have stable domestic spot prices and strong support for futures. The pig market has short - term supply pressure. The peanut market has limited upside potential due to expected increased planting area. The egg market has sufficient supply, and the apple market may be slightly weaker in the short term. The cotton market is mainly affected by macro factors [3][5][8][20][29][34][38][49][54][59] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - 外盘情况: CBOT大豆指数 rose 0.45% to 1057.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT豆粕指数 rose 0.33% to $302.2 per short ton [2] - 相关资讯: Brazil's soybean production reached 169 million tons this year. Global rapeseed production may be about 800,000 - 900,000 tons less. Brazil launched a 28 - day avian influenza observation period. As of May 23, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2093 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.1%. Soybean inventory increased by 9.71% week - on - week and 33.95% year - on - year, and 豆粕 inventory increased by 20.26% week - on - week and decreased by 80.47% year - on - year [2] - 逻辑分析: The overall soybean supply is loose. Domestic oil mills have increasing operating rates, and there is a large inventory - building pressure in the future [3][5] - 交易策略: Make small - scale long positions unilaterally. Do M11 - 1 positive spreads and widen MRM spreads in arbitrage. Sell wide - straddle strategies in options [6] Sugar - 外盘情况: Closed [7] - 重要资讯: In 2025/26, global sugar production is expected to reach 189.318 million tons, with a supply surplus of 11.397 million tons. Domestic spot sugar prices generally declined, and the spot trading was average. From January to April this year, the import of sugar cane at Zhangfeng Port in Yunnan increased by 16.8% year - on - year [8][9] - 逻辑分析: Brazil is approaching the peak crushing period, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak. Domestic Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in shock [11] - 交易策略: View the market as weak in shock unilaterally. Wait and see in arbitrage. Sell wide - straddle options or out - of - the - money ratio spread options [12][13][14] Fats and Oils - 外盘情况: CBOT US soybean oil was closed, and BMD Malaysian palm oil's main price dropped 0.26% to 3819 ringgit per ton [16] - 相关资讯: From May 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.73%. Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 25 increased by 7.3% compared to the same period last month. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean and corn production forecasts were raised. The EU's 2025 rapeseed yield forecast was lowered. Ukraine's 2025/26 rapeseed price rose, and the production forecast was slightly increased [17][18][19] - 逻辑分析: In May, Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue increasing production and inventory. The inventory - building speed of domestic soybean oil may slow down, and the vegetable oil market has a pattern of oversupply [20] - 交易策略: The short - term trend of fats and oils is expected to be in shock. Consider shorting palm oil at the upper edge of the range unilaterally. Consider widening YP 09 spreads at low prices and going long on OI 91 at low prices in arbitrage. Wait and see in options [21][22][23] Corn/Corn Starch - 外盘变化: CBOT corn futures were closed, and the previous trading day's main contract dropped 0.3% [25] - 重要资讯: In the US corn - producing states, 66.67% of the area is likely to have higher - than - normal temperatures in the next 6 - 10 days, and 39% of the area is likely to have lower - than - normal precipitation. As of May 24, the harvesting rate of Brazil's first - crop corn was 86.9%. Brazil's cumulative corn shipments were 37,200 tons. Some areas in Brazil have started harvesting the second - crop corn. The purchase price at the northern port and the price in the North China production area were stable [26][28] - 逻辑分析: The US corn report is stable, and the sowing is accelerating. The domestic corn supply is relatively small, and the spot price is stable. The 07 corn contract is in low - level shock, and the basis is narrowing [29] - 交易策略: The 07 corn contract on the outer market has support at around 440 cents per bushel. Try long positions on the 07 corn contract unilaterally. Do arbitrage operations on corn and starch, widen the spread at low prices, and hold long positions in corn and short positions in 07 corn in arbitrage. Consider the strategy of selling call options at high prices for those with spot goods in options [30][31] Pigs - 相关资讯: Pig prices were generally weak. As of May 20, the prices of 7 - kg and 15 - kg piglets decreased, and the price of 50 - kg sows was stable. On May 23, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market increased by 1.4% [33][34] - 逻辑分析: The enthusiasm of farmers to sell pigs is relatively high, and the short - term supply pressure still exists [34] - 交易策略: The market is expected to move in shock unilaterally. Do LH79 reverse spreads in arbitrage. Sell wide - straddle strategies in options [35] Peanuts - 重要资讯: Peanut prices in different regions were stable. The arrivals and transaction prices of peanut oil mills in different places varied. Peanut oil prices were strong, and peanut meal sales were weak. As of May 22, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises increased, and as of May 23, the peanut oil inventory decreased [36][37] - 逻辑分析: Peanut spot trading is still scarce. Although the price of new - season peanuts in Henan has risen, the expected increase in planting area limits the upside potential [38] - 交易策略: Wait and see for the 10 - peanut contract unilaterally. Wait and see in arbitrage and options [39][40][41] Eggs - 重要资讯: The average prices of eggs in the main production and sales areas decreased. Most of the national mainstream prices rose later. In April, the number of laying hens in production increased, and the number of hatched chicks also increased. The number of culled hens increased in the week of May 16, and the average culling age decreased. As of May 1, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased. As of May 15, the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased. As of May 16, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs increased, and the expected profit per laying hen also increased [44][45][46] - 交易逻辑: The overall egg supply is sufficient. After the egg price has fallen to the current level, it has shown signs of stability. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see [49] Apples - 重要资讯: As of April 16, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas decreased, and the inventory - removal speed was faster than the same period last year. From January to March 2025, the cumulative export volume of fresh apples increased by 9.5% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 123.9% year - on - year. The apple market in the origin was stable, with storage merchants being active in selling and market merchants being cautious in purchasing. Apple prices in Shandong and Shaanxi were stable [50][51][53] - 交易逻辑: The recent rainfall in Shaanxi has alleviated the drought. The market may revise its previous pessimistic expectations. Entering the off - season of apple consumption, the spot market sales have slowed down. However, the low inventory supports the spot price. The 2510 contract is expected to have limited downward space [54] - 交易策略: Consider closing out short positions and waiting and seeing unilaterally. Do long positions on 08 and short positions on 09 in arbitrage. Wait and see in options [52] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - 外盘影响: Closed [56] - 重要资讯: As of May 20, the drought index in the US cotton - producing areas was at the five - year average level. As of May 16, the number of un - priced contracts of ICE cotton futures decreased. The domestic cotton spot trading was generally light, and the main basis was firm [57][58] - 交易逻辑: The commercial inventory on the supply side has decreased significantly recently. The weather in the new - cotton producing areas has little impact on the growth of new cotton. The demand has improved due to the reduction of macro - tariffs, but there is no obvious increase in new orders in the off - season. The market is mainly dominated by macro factors [59] - 交易策略: The US cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in shock, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to move in shock. Wait and see in arbitrage and options [60][61]