OPPLE(SH:603515) Guotai Junan Securities·2025-05-27 02:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5][11]. Core Views - The company, as a leading player in the lighting industry, is expected to continue consolidating its market share due to its scale, technology, and brand advantages. High dividends are anticipated to continue rewarding shareholders, making it a favorable investment [2][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 7,096 million in 2024, a decrease of 9.0% year-on-year, followed by a recovery to CNY 7,552 million in 2025, representing a growth of 6.4% [4][11]. - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be CNY 903 million in 2024, down 2.3% from the previous year, with a forecasted increase to CNY 955 million in 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.8% [4][11]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is projected to be CNY 1.21 in 2024, with an increase to CNY 1.28 in 2025 and further to CNY 1.38 in 2026 [4][11]. - Return on Equity (ROE): The ROE is expected to be 13.4% in 2024, slightly decreasing to 12.7% in 2025, before recovering to 13.4% in 2027 [4][11]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of CNY 9 per 10 shares (including tax) in 2024, totaling CNY 666 million, with a payout ratio of 73.8% and a corresponding dividend yield of 5.02% [11]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from lighting application products and others is expected to be CNY 70.33 billion, down 8.59% year-on-year, while other businesses are projected to generate CNY 0.63 billion, a decline of 37.74% [11]. - Domestic revenue is anticipated to be CNY 63.62 billion, down 8.57%, while international revenue is expected to be CNY 6.71 billion, a decrease of 8.75% [11]. Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 39.29%, a decrease of 1.04 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 12.72%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points [11].