宏观研究报告：稳定的经济展望 需要一个稳定的特朗普

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The market's outlook for the US economy in the second half of 2025 remains unclear due to the fluctuating policies of Trump, particularly regarding tariffs and inflation[5] - The overall inflation in the US may rise following the implementation of tariffs, with significant uncertainty surrounding future inflation trends[7] - The impact of tariffs on prices is limited, as most of the tariff burden is passed to importers rather than consumers, and the share of affected imported goods in consumer spending is small[7] Group 2: Fiscal Situation - The US federal budget deficit for the first half of FY 2025 has exceeded $1.3 trillion, marking the second-highest half-year deficit in history[14] - Federal government spending reached $3.57 trillion in the first half of FY 2025, a nearly 10% increase year-on-year, driven by mandatory spending and rising interest costs[14] - Interest payments are projected to account for 14% of total spending in FY 2025, up from 12% in FY 2024, reflecting the growing debt burden[15] Group 3: Tax and Policy Implications - Trump's proposed tax cuts could lead to a reduction in federal revenue by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade, exacerbating the fiscal deficit[20] - The reliance on personal income tax, which constitutes nearly 50% of federal revenue, makes the budget particularly sensitive to economic downturns[19] - A potential decline in GDP growth from 1.9% to 1.4% could result in a $30 billion drop in tax revenue, further straining the fiscal situation[19]