Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-05-27 03:20Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The domestic lithium carbonate supply in May 2025 is expected to be loose, and the social inventory of domestic lithium carbonate has decreased month - on - month. Due to the cost and supply - demand expectations, the lithium carbonate price may remain weak. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the support level around 53,000 - 60,000 and the pressure level around 66,000 - 70,000 [1][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - On May 26, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared with May 23, 2025, with decreases of 720 yuan/ton, 860 yuan/ton, 1,000 yuan/ton, and 860 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume decreased by 32,588 lots, and the open interest increased by 7,966 lots. The inventory decreased by 794 tons [1]. - The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed. For example, the spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts increased by 140 yuan/ton [1]. Lithium Spot Price - The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide decreased compared with the previous period. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) decreased by 550 yuan/ton [1]. - The price differences between different grades of lithium products also changed. For example, the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 1,600 yuan/ton [1]. Lithium - Related Company News - Dazhong Mining, a domestic mining enterprise, has made important breakthroughs in its "iron ore + lithium ore" dual - wheel drive strategy. Its Hunan lithium ore project has rapid progress, with a proven reserve of 3.044 million tons in December 2024 [1]. - Sijie Co., Ltd. released new sulfide products at the 2025 China International Battery Technology Exchange Conference. It has achieved leading - level production indicators in terms of purity, particle size control, and ion conductivity of sulfide solid - state electrolytes. It has also reached a procurement framework agreement with Beijing Weilan New Energy [2]. - Hainan Mining's 20,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project has achieved full - process connectivity, marking a phased achievement in its industrial transformation and upgrading strategy [3]. - Rio Tinto will form a joint venture with the Chilean National Mining Company to develop and operate the Maricunga Salt Lake project in Chile, with a planned investment of up to $900 million [3]. Supply - Demand Situation Supply - Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes lithium mine project may increase the total annual production capacity to 2.01 million tons after being put into operation in October 2025, which may lead to a decline in the price of domestic lithium concentrate and an increase in the domestic production (import) volume of lithium concentrate in May. The production capacity utilization rate and production volume of domestic lithium carbonate decreased last week, and the supply in May is expected to be loose [4]. - The import window of lithium carbonate is closed, and the theoretical delivery profit is negative, resulting in a decrease in the inventory of Guangzhou Futures Exchange and a decrease in the social inventory of lithium carbonate [4]. - The monthly cash production cost of lithium hydroxide by some domestic methods is positive or negative in terms of profit. Some companies' production line construction plans may increase the production volume and inventory of lithium hydroxide in May, while the export profit is negative, which may lead to an increase in the export volume [4]. Demand - The average production cost of phosphoric acid iron and lithium iron phosphate by different domestic production processes is within a certain range. The production volume and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and lithium iron phosphate may increase in May. Some companies' project plans will also affect the production and inventory of related products [5]. - The production (import) volume of various lithium - related products such as cobalt sulfate, electrolytic manganese dioxide, ternary precursors, ternary materials, and hexafluorophosphate lithium may change in May due to factors such as production cost and profit [6]. - Some new energy - related projects are expected to be put into operation, which may increase the production, shipment, and inventory of energy - storage cells, power cells, and lithium - ion batteries in May, as well as the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles [6].