尿素早评：回落空间有限-20250527

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report believes that the decline space of urea is limited, and recommends a strategy of buying on dips for the future market of urea. The main reasons are that urea exports may gradually be liberalized, with considerable export profits due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and domestic agricultural demand will support the market as it has not been fully released yet and the upstream inventory pressure has significantly decreased [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Changes - Futures Prices: On May 26, compared with May 23, UR01 in Shandong decreased by 16 yuan/ton (-0.91%), UR05 decreased by 13 yuan/ton (-0.74%), and UR09 decreased by 11 yuan/ton (-0.60%). In other regions, prices also showed varying degrees of decline, such as in Henan, it decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-1.60%) [1]. - Spot Prices: Domestic spot prices in various regions also declined. For example, in Hebei (small - granular), it decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.06%), and in the Northeast, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.52%) [1]. - Basis and Spreads: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 7 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 3 yuan/ton [1]. - Cost and Downstream Prices: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged, and the prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizer and melamine in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu also remained stable [1]. 3.2 Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1830 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1830 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1807 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1816 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1817 yuan/ton, and the position was 219,428 lots [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips, expecting the 09 contract to operate in the range of 1800 - 1950 yuan/ton. The main reasons are the potential liberalization of urea exports and the support of domestic agricultural demand [1].