安粮期货投资早参-20250527

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Soybean Oil: The Y2509 contract of soybean oil may fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. The mid - term de - stocking cycle may be ending, and the inventory may rebound after the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance [1]. - Soybean Meal: Soybean meal may fluctuate with a bullish bias in the short - term. The supply of soybeans is recovering, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [2]. - Corn: The short - term futures price has a demand for rebound after a decline, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [3]. - Copper: The copper price has not completely got rid of the disturbance of the moving average, and the upper limit of the moving average system is set as the overall defense line [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate may fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to go short at high prices [5][6]. - Steel: For steel, it is recommended to wait and see for now. After the price stabilizes, consider a light - position long - entry strategy. The steel fundamentals are gradually improving, with a supply - demand dual - strong pattern emerging [7]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke will fluctuate weakly at a low level [8]. - Iron Ore: The 2509 contract of iron ore will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [9]. - Crude Oil: The WTI main contract will mainly fluctuate between $55 and $65 per barrel. In the medium - to - long - term, the price may shift downward, but there is technical support at $55 per barrel [10]. - Rubber: Rubber will mainly fluctuate weakly as the overall supply exceeds demand. Attention should be paid to the downstream start - up situation of Shanghai - traded rubber [11][12]. - PVC: The fundamentals of PVC remain weak, and the futures price will fluctuate at a low level [13]. - Soda Ash: The futures market of soda ash is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the equipment maintenance dynamics and unexpected events [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - Spot Market: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang Yijiang is 8,200 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - International Soybean: It is the season for U.S. soybean sowing and growth and South American soybean harvesting and exporting. Brazil's soybean harvest is almost completed, and the new South American crop is likely to have a bumper harvest. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's May report shows that the estimated soybean yield per acre in the 2025/26 season is 52.5 bushels, compared with 50.7 bushels in the 2024/25 season [1]. - Domestic Industry: The mid - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. The inventory may rebound after the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance [1]. Soybean Meal - Spot Information: The spot prices of 43 - grade soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 2,860 yuan/ton (-20), 2,950 yuan/ton (-20), 2,880 yuan/ton (-40), and 2,910 yuan/ton (-10) respectively [2]. - Market Analysis: Macroscopically, the China - U.S. trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. Tariff policies and weather are the main drivers of international soybean prices. The supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose. The high price of soybean meal stimulates market transactions, and the downstream feed demand was underestimated. The soybean inventory of oil mills has returned to a high level, and the inventory accumulation speed of soybean meal is relatively slow in the short term [2]. Corn - Spot Information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia, and in key enterprises in North China and the Huanghuai region are 2,195 yuan/ton and 2,414 yuan/ton respectively. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton [3]. - Market Analysis: Externally, the China - U.S. joint statement on tariff reduction has led to an expectation of looser long - term corn imports, which affects short - term price sentiment, but the negative impact on domestic futures prices is limited. The May USDA report has raised the U.S. corn production and ending inventory, which is negative for U.S. corn futures prices. Domestically, with the warming weather and the planting season approaching, the remaining grain at the grass - roots level in the producing areas has basically been sold out, and the supply pressure has been relieved. However, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the demand is weak [3]. Copper - Spot Information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 77,930 - 78,140 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The import copper ore index is - 44.28, down 1.23 [4]. - Market Analysis: The global tariff confrontation is gradually easing, which is beneficial to the commodity market. China's policy support has boosted market sentiment. However, the raw material supply is still unstable, and the rapid decline in domestic copper inventory has intensified the game between reality and expectation, and between domestic and foreign markets [4]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot Information: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 61,950 (-1,050) yuan/ton and 60,350 (-500) yuan/ton respectively. The price difference between them is 1,600 (-450) yuan/ton [5]. - Market Analysis: The cost of various ores has dropped significantly, but the profit margin of lithium carbonate has not been effectively expanded due to the rapid decline in prices. The weekly operating rate of the lithium carbonate industry has slightly decreased, but the overall output is still high. As the temperature rises, the production capacity of salt - lake lithium extraction will be further released, and the low - cost supply may suppress the market price. The demand for cathode materials is stable, and the power battery market is growing steadily, but the demand is still not strong enough to drive the price up. The overall inventory decreased slightly in the week ending May 23 [5]. Steel - Spot Information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan/ton. The operating rate in Tangshan is 83.56%. The social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the inventory in steel mills is 200.4 million tons [7]. - Market Analysis: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, and the contango structure has weakened. The current valuation of steel is moderately low. The policy supports the real - estate industry, but the apparent demand for steel has decreased year - on - year. The raw material prices fluctuated weakly this week, and the cost center of steel is dynamically adjusted. The social and steel - mill inventories of steel are showing different trends, and the overall inventory level is low [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - Spot Information: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 246.10 million tons [8]. - Market Analysis: The supply is relatively loose. The domestic production capacity is steadily recovering, and the capacity utilization rate of coking plants is stable. The import of Mongolian coal remains at a high level despite some disturbances. The demand is weak as steel mills are reducing production, and the iron - water production is expected to decline. Independent coking enterprises maintain a low - inventory strategy for raw materials, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing. The average profit per ton of coke is stable and approaching the break - even point [8]. Iron Ore - Spot Information: The Platts iron ore index is 98.95. The price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 750 yuan/ton, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 754 yuan/ton [9]. - Market Analysis: The iron ore market is facing both bullish and bearish factors. The Australian iron ore shipments have decreased after the end of the quarterly shipment rush, while the Brazilian shipments are continuously increasing. The global total shipments have slightly decreased. The port inventory has decreased by 112.39 million tons to 1.48 billion tons, indicating a short - term reduction in the arrival pressure. The domestic steel - mill iron - water production has increased to 240.22 million tons per day, and the daily consumption of imported ore has increased. However, steel mills are still cautious in purchasing raw materials. Overseas demand is divided, and the U.S. tariff policy has increased price volatility [9]. Crude Oil - Market Analysis: The resurgence of twists in the U.S. - Iran negotiations has reduced the expectation of supply increase, which has boosted oil prices. However, the downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating has led to the overall volatile operation of crude oil. In the medium - to - long - term, the price is restricted. OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects an oversupply. OPEC has significantly lowered the global demand growth rate for the next two years, and geopolitical conflicts have increased market uncertainty [10]. Rubber - Market Analysis: The improvement of the China - U.S. trade situation has limited impact on the rubber market. The domestic natural rubber has entered the tapping season, and the supply in Southeast Asia is also increasing. The global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. The market's speculation on the trade war and the potential U.S. automobile tariff may suppress the global rubber demand [11][12]. PVC - Spot Information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,760 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton. The price difference between them is 240 yuan/ton, all remaining unchanged from the previous period [13]. - Market Analysis: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises decreased last week. The demand from domestic downstream product enterprises has not improved significantly, and the transactions are mainly based on rigid demand. As of May 22, the PVC social inventory has decreased [13]. Soda Ash - Spot Information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,408.13 yuan/ton, down 8.12 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1,450 yuan/ton, 1,500 yuan/ton, and 1,400 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged [14]. - Market Analysis: The overall operating rate of soda ash decreased last week, and the production volume also decreased. The manufacturer's inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly. The demand from the middle and lower reaches is average, with a preference for low - priced products [14].