告别低利率04：50年国债发飞后又反弹，凸显配置与交易的矛盾

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 23, 2025, the weighted average winning bid rate of the 50 - year special treasury bond was 2.1%, the first increase since 2022. After the issuance result was announced, long - term bonds adjusted significantly but then rebounded rapidly. The large - scale fluctuations in long - term bonds stem from the game between allocation and trading forces [4]. - The bond market's liability - side problems and supply - demand mismatch may exist for a long time. From "asset shortage" to "liability shortage", the trading model of "buying on dips" has failed this year, and the winning probabilities of typical bottom - fishing institutions have decreased significantly [4]. - There are still trading opportunities. In the short term, factors such as tariff disturbances and the central bank's expectation of restarting treasury bond trading can be used to bet on short - term oversold rebounds. However, under the long - term logic of "liability shortage", interest rates may mainly fluctuate upward this year [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Reasons for the "Flying" of 50 - year Treasury Bond Issuance - The main allocation force for 50 - year treasury bonds is insurance. Since the beginning of this year, the overall new funds of insurance have been weak. In January, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of insurance premium income dropped to - 3.34%, and the 0.93% growth rate in March was still significantly lower than 11.15% last year [4]. - Due to the low attractiveness of interest rate points and limited new allocation funds, insurance's bond - buying behavior may shift from continuous allocation last year to a certain trading logic. Since the beginning of this year, insurance has mainly increased its holdings of ultra - long local government bonds, with a cumulative increase of over 850 billion yuan, and the increase in ultra - long treasury bonds has been relatively weak [4]. Reasons for the Rebound of Long - term Bonds - Trading behavior drove the rebound. On May 23, rural commercial banks bought long - end interest - rate bonds against the trend, and funds increased their allocation of long - end other bonds (including Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds). Rural commercial banks significantly increased their allocation of 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds, with a scale of 116.45 billion yuan, and funds were the main buyers of long - end Tier 2 capital bonds, with a net purchase of 57.96 billion yuan of 7 - 10Y other (Tier 2 capital bonds) bonds [4]. Current Situation of the Bond Market - Traditional allocation forces in the bond market have been significantly insufficient this year due to liability - side problems. Banks have suffered serious liability - side losses, and insurance has also faced pressure on liability - side costs and asset - side returns, making it difficult to have incremental allocation forces [4]. - The supply of interest - rate bonds, especially long - term ones, has been increasing. In May, the issuance of ultra - long special treasury bonds started, and the issuance of new local special bonds accelerated, resulting in a total net supply of government bonds reaching 1.49 trillion yuan [4].