钢材周报：供需环比转弱，钢价承压下行-20250527

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand structure of the steel industry has weakened on a month - on - month basis, and steel prices are under downward pressure. The market is affected by factors such as overseas tariff threats and domestic policy vacuums, with a focus on the changes in the industrial supply - demand structure. The destocking of the five major steel products has slowed down, and the prices of raw materials have declined, dragging down the prices of finished products [3]. - The prices of iron ore, coking coal, and coke are also under downward pressure. The supply of iron ore has a potential increase, while demand is weakening. For coking coal and coke, the market is weak due to factors such as reduced mine开工率, low transaction rates, and the expectation of a second price cut for coke [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - As the domestic macro - policy entered a vacuum period, the market focus returned to the industrial fundamentals. The five major steel products continued to destock, but the destocking slowed down. With the approaching of the rainy season, the market was hesitant. After the first price cut of coke, the cost reduction further dragged down the steel price [9]. - The prices of various steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke in the spot and futures markets generally showed a downward trend, and there were also corresponding changes in positions, basis, spreads, and inventories [10]. 3.2 Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: National weekly production of rebar increased to 226.53 tons (month - on - month +1.34%, year - on - year - 3.02%), and that of hot - rolled coil decreased to 311.98 tons (month - on - month - 2.62%, year - on - year - 3.91%). The production of both blast furnace and electric furnace rebar increased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly to 83.69% (month - on - month - 0.55%, year - on - year +2.69%), while the electric furnace operating rate increased to 77.18% (month - on - month +2.63%, year - on - year +5.15%) [16][18][28]. - Profit: Rebar profit shrank to +88 yuan/ton (week - on - week - 14.56%, year - on - year - 46.99%), and hot - rolled coil profit improved on a month - on - month basis to +40 yuan/ton (week - on - week +29.03%, year - on - year - 54.55%) [32]. - Demand: Rebar apparent consumption decreased to 247.13 tons (month - on - month - 5.06%, year - on - year - 1.11%), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption decreased to 313.06 tons (month - on - month - 4.99%, year - on - year - 4.51%). The 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.53 tons (month - on - month - 13.33%, year - on - year - 32.27%) [37]. - Inventory: Rebar total inventory decreased to 604.22 tons (month - on - month - 2.52%, year - on - year - 22.94%), with the decline slowing down, the factory inventory slightly increasing, and the social inventory continuing to decline. Hot - rolled coil total inventory decreased to 340.19 tons (month - on - month - 2.12%, year - on - year - 17.66%), with both factory and social inventories decreasing [41][46]. - Downstream: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 9.81% month - on - month and 0.19% year - on - year, while the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.20% month - on - month and 40.61% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in April 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, down 12.9% and 11.2% month - on - month but up 8.9% and 9.8% year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: The shipping volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased to 2729.2 tons (month - on - month +0.85%, year - on - year - 0.75%), and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased to 2151.3 tons (month - on - month - 5.28%, year - on - year - 11.25%). The iron ore price index was 99.58 (month - on - month - 2.57%, year - on - year - 16.86%) [60]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal decreased to 243.6 tons (month - on - month - 1.17 tons, year - on - year +6.8 tons), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports increased to 327.09 tons (month - on - month +0.99%, year - on - year +12.13%). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.57 days (month - on - month - 0.03%, year - on - year - 8.34%) [65]. - Inventory: The inventory at 45 ports decreased to 13987.83 tons (month - on - month - 1.26%, year - on - year - 5.87%), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased to 8925.48 tons (month - on - month - 0.40%, year - on - year - 4.43%). The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 22.94 days (month - on - month - 3.57%, year - on - year +2.55%) [71]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: The operating rate of coking coal mines decreased to 86.3% (month - on - month - 3.32%, year - on - year - 1.19%), the operating rate of coal washing plants increased to 62.36% (month - on - month +0.45%, year - on - year - 8.71%), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased to 15.93 tons (month - on - month +2.97%, year - on - year - 10.20%) [77]. - Transaction Rate: The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 61.01% (week - on - week +17.01%, year - on - year - 39%), and the weekly transaction rate was 59.98% (week - on - week - 2.09%, year - on - year +7.74%) [79]. - Coking Enterprise Situation: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 15 yuan/ton (month - on - month - 22 yuan/ton, year - on - year - 49 yuan/ton), and the capacity utilization rate was 75.18% (month - on - month - 0.07%, year - on - year +3.10%). The capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke was 75.87% [85]. - Coking Coal Inventory: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants decreased to 737.89 tons (month - on - month - 1.93%, year - on - year - 3.85%), the steel mill coking coal inventory increased to 798.58 tons (month - on - month +0.96%, year - on - year +6.15%), and the coking coal port inventory decreased to 301.56 tons (month - on - month - 1.48%, year - on - year +31.40%) [91]. - Coke Inventory: The coke inventory of independent coking plants increased to 73.1 tons (month - on - month +11.70%, year - on - year +58.19%), the steel enterprise coke inventory decreased to 660.59 tons (month - on - month - 0.48%, year - on - year +18.26%), and the coke port inventory decreased to 223.10 tons (month - on - month - 0.90%, year - on - year +5.09%) [97]. - Spot Price: The price of coking coal is weakening, and the first price cut of coke has been implemented. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi is 1230 yuan/ton (week - on - week - 20 yuan/ton, year - on - year - 720 yuan/ton), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang is 1150 yuan/ton (month - on - month - 50 yuan/ton, year - on - year - 650 yuan/ton) [103]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar has widened, and the spread between the 10 - 01 contracts of rebar has slightly widened. The 9 - 01 spread of iron ore has slightly shrunk, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has fluctuated within a narrow range [105][111].