周度经济观察：国内资产偏平淡，海外债市起波澜-20250527

Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - In April, general public budget revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue rising by 4.1% and non-tax revenue declining by 4.3%[4] - Government fund revenue rose by 7.7% year-on-year, with land transfer income increasing by 3.9%[5] - Government fund expenditure surged by 44.3% year-on-year, reflecting strong fiscal support for infrastructure projects[5] Group 2: Export Performance and Trade Impact - April export growth showed a slight decline, with large enterprises experiencing a significant drop in export delivery value growth from 7.7% in March to 0.9% in April[9] - The disparity in export performance suggests that larger enterprises are more adversely affected by tariffs, particularly in upstream industries[11] - The overall external demand remains strong, but structural shifts in export strategies are evident, with a move from "grabbing exports" to "grabbing trans-shipments"[9] Group 3: Market Trends and Interest Rates - The equity market has been volatile, with sectors like pharmaceuticals and automobiles performing well, while TMT sectors lagged[12] - Recent trends indicate a slight recovery in interbank funding rates, with short-term rates fluctuating at low levels and long-term rates rising slightly[16] - U.S. and Japanese government bond yields have risen significantly due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation expectations[22] Group 4: Geopolitical and Policy Risks - Geopolitical risks and unexpected policy changes remain key concerns for market stability[3] - The potential for U.S. tariff adjustments in mid-2025 could influence market dynamics and investor sentiment[13] - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations may lead to cautious inventory accumulation among enterprises[11]