BABA(09988) 东方证券·2025-05-27 05:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba [3] Core Views - Alibaba's core e-commerce business remains stable and shows positive growth, while its cloud business is entering a high-growth cycle driven by AI demand [7][9] - The company has exceeded expectations in its latest quarterly results, with revenue of 2364.5 billion yuan (+6.6%) and adjusted net profit of 298.5 billion yuan (+22.2%) [7] - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on integrating AI with cloud services and its core e-commerce operations, with a projected revenue growth for FY2026-2028 [9][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY4Q25, Alibaba achieved revenue of 2364.5 billion yuan, slightly below Bloomberg consensus of 2379.1 billion yuan, but adjusted net profit of 298.5 billion yuan exceeded expectations [7] - The Taobao and Tmall Group reported revenue of 1013.7 billion yuan (+8.8% YoY) and adjusted EBITA of 417.5 billion yuan (+8.4% YoY) [7] - The Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue reached 301.3 billion yuan (+17.7% YoY), driven by public cloud growth and AI-related revenue [7] Business Segments - Taobao Group's GMV growth is expected to align with the overall e-commerce market, with a stable market share [7] - The Cloud Intelligence Group is positioned to benefit from the AI boom, with significant investments in infrastructure [7] - International digital commerce revenue grew by 22.3% YoY, while the logistics segment faced a temporary decline due to business adjustments [7] Shareholder Returns - In FY25Q4, Alibaba repurchased 51 million shares for a total of 600 million USD, with a total of 11.97 billion shares repurchased in FY25 [8] - The company declared a regular dividend of 0.13 USD per share and a special cash dividend of 0.12 USD, totaling 4.6 billion USD for the fiscal year [8] Valuation and Forecast - The report projects FY2026-2028 revenues of 10642 billion yuan, 11748 billion yuan, and 12725 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1696 billion yuan, 1849 billion yuan, and 1955 billion yuan respectively [9][11] - The estimated market value of the company is 30954 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 176.86 HKD [9][24]