国贸期货蛋白数据日报-20250527

Group 1: Core Views - Domestic soybean arrivals from Brazil in May, June, and July are expected to exceed 10 million tons each month, with the purchase progress at 92.7% for June, 74.4% for July, and 29.7% for August; the US soybean planting progress is fast, with dry weather expected in the next two weeks and poor conditions in Nebraska; the flood in Argentina's soybean - producing areas has limited expected impact [4][5] - From the perspective of inventory, as of last week, soybean inventory decreased slightly and is at a high level in the same period over the years, while the soybean meal inventory increased to 20.69 tons and is still low, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days increased but are still at a low level [5] - Overall, the domestic soybean meal basis continues to decline, and the basis in Guangdong may rebound due to sampling inspection. The soybean meal inventory is still low, but it is expected to accumulate rapidly in June with the increase in开机 and downstream replenishment. In the short - term, the spot pressure will have a negative impact on the near - month contract and basis, and there is no obvious bullish driver for US soybeans and premiums, so the futures price is expected to be volatile [5] Group 2: Data Summary Basis Data - The basis data of soybean meal main contracts (Zhangjiagang) and various regions' 43% soybean meal spot basis (relative to the main contract) on May 26 are provided, including data for different time periods such as 19/20, 20/21, etc. [3] - The basis data of vegetable sugar in Guangdong and other regions are also provided [3] Spread Data - The spread data of M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, RM9 - 1, and the spot and futures spreads of soybean meal - rapeseed meal (in Guangdong and the main contract) are presented, covering multiple time intervals from 18/19 to 23/24 [4] Other Data - Information on dollar - RMB exchange rate, soybean CNF premium, import soybean futures gross profit, and inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, main domestic oil mills' soybeans, main domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days are provided, along with the开机 rate and soybean crushing volume of main domestic oil mills [4]