国证国际港股晨报-20250527

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened lower and closed down 318 points or 1.35% at 23,282 points, with a trading volume of 223.5 billion HKD, an increase of 9.75% from the previous day [2] - Northbound capital recorded a net outflow of 1.507 billion HKD, an increase of 32.3% from the previous day, with Meituan, China Mobile, and Horizon Robotics being the most bought stocks, while Tencent, Alibaba, and the Tracker Fund were the most sold [2] Group 2: Meituan Q1 Performance - Meituan's total revenue increased by 18% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations by 1.3% (1.1 billion HKD), with core local business and new business revenues growing by 18% and 19% respectively [4] - Adjusted net profit exceeded expectations by 13%, with core local business profits rising by 39% and operating profit margin (OPM) improving by 3 percentage points to 21% [4] - New business commission revenue surged by 85% to 1.2 billion HKD, reflecting strong overseas business performance, although the segment reported a loss of 2.3 billion HKD, narrowing by 500 million HKD year-on-year [4] Group 3: Meituan Management Insights - Management emphasized the need for competitive investment and expressed confidence in winning the market, indicating potential fluctuations in profit margins due to increased investments [4] - For the next three years, Meituan plans to invest 100 billion HKD to promote healthy development in the catering industry, while also focusing on supporting small and medium-sized merchants and protecting rider rights [4] Group 4: Tongcheng Travel Q1 Performance - Tongcheng Travel reported total revenue of 4.4 billion HKD in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with core OTA revenue growing by 18% [7] - The operating profit for core OTA increased by 53% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 29.2%, benefiting from improved subsidy and marketing efficiency [7] - Adjusted net profit rose by 41% to 790 million HKD, exceeding market expectations by 11% [7] Group 5: Tongcheng Travel Strategic Moves - Tongcheng Travel announced plans to fully acquire Wanda Hotel Management for approximately 2.5 billion HKD, which is expected to enhance user demand coverage and potentially increase average transaction value [8] - The acquisition aligns with Tongcheng's existing hotel supply and is anticipated to create synergies that will benefit the company's overall performance [8] Group 6: Financial Forecasts - For Q2, core OTA revenue is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with accommodation and transportation ticketing revenues projected to increase by 12% and 10% respectively [9] - The overall revenue for 2025 is adjusted to a year-on-year increase of 12%, with core OTA revenue and operating profit expected to rise by 17% and 23% respectively [9] - The target price for Tongcheng Travel is adjusted to 24.4 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 29% from the recent closing price, maintaining a "buy" rating [9]