【早间看点】SPPOMA马棕5月前25日产量增加0.73%加拿大4月油菜籽压榨环比减少10.27%-20250527

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MPOB April palm oil supply - demand report has a negative impact due to a significant increase in production and higher - than - expected ending inventory [24]. - The USDA May supply - demand report has a positive impact as the 25/26 annual US soybean ending inventory estimate is lower than market expectations [25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Overnight Market - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 08 is 3819.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.05% and an overnight decline of - 0.26% [1]. - The closing price of ICE Brent 08 is 64.18, with a previous day's decline of - 0.33% and an overnight increase of 0.31% [1]. - The closing price of NYMEX US crude oil 07 is 61.53, with a previous day's decline of - 0.37% and an overnight increase of 0.34% [1]. - The US dollar index is 98.99, with a decline of - 0.09% [2]. - The CNY/USD exchange rate is 7.1833, with a decline of - 0.12% [2]. - The MYR/USD exchange rate is 4.2317, with a decline of - 0.83% [2]. - The IDR/USD exchange rate is 16215, with a decline of - 0.57% [2]. - The BRL/USD exchange rate is 5.6464, with a decline of - 1.03% [2]. - The ARS/USD exchange rate is 1143.000, with an increase of 1.06% [2]. - The SGD/USD exchange rate is 1.2851, with a decline of - 0.42% [2]. 02 Spot Market - For DCE palm oil 2505, the spot price in East China is 8440, with a basis of 470 and a daily basis change of - 10; in South China, the spot price is 8420, with a basis of 450 and a daily basis change of - 30 [3]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot price in Shandong is 7980, with a basis of 266 and a daily basis change of - 18; in Jiangsu, the spot price is 8020, with a basis of 306 and a daily basis change of - 8; in Guangdong, the spot price is 8000, with a basis of 286 and a daily basis change of - 38; in Tianjin, the spot price is 7900, with a basis of 186 and a daily basis change of - 18 [3]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot price in Shandong is 2880, with a basis of - 73 and a daily basis change of - 39; in Jiangsu, the spot price is 2870, with a basis of - 83 and a daily basis change of - 19; in Guangdong, the spot price is 2900, with a basis of - 53 and a daily basis change of 1; in Tianjin, the spot price is 2960, with a basis of 7 and a daily basis change of - 9 [3]. - The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 145 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 443 dollars per ton [5]. 03 Important Fundamental Information Weather Forecast - From May 31 to June 4, in the northeastern US soybean - producing states, the temperature is higher than normal and the precipitation is generally low [6]. - In the US Midwest, there will be rainfall and low temperatures. Recent heavy precipitation is beneficial for soil moisture, but it may delay sowing in the southern areas. Frost may occur in the northern remote areas [8]. International Supply and Demand - From May 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 0.73%, with a 1.06% decrease in yield per unit and a 0.34% increase in oil extraction rate [10]. - From May 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports were estimated to be 991,702 tons (AmSpec) and 947,248 tons (SGS), increasing by 7.3% and 34.71% respectively compared to the same period last month [10][11]. - In 2024, Malaysia's palm oil exports to Algeria increased by nearly 82% to about 79,000 tons [11]. - Thailand's domestic trade department requires the palm oil purchase price to be no less than 5 Thai baht per kilogram and the retail price of bottled palm oil to be no more than 50 Thai baht per liter [11]. - The estimated Brazilian soybean production in 2024/25 is 1.720 billion tons, and the corn production is 1.327 billion tons [11]. - As of May 24, 2024/25, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 99.5% [12]. - In the 4th week of May 2025, Brazil's soybean loading volume was 11.1543 million tons, and the daily average loading volume increased by 8.96% compared to May last year [12]. - The EU's 2025 rapeseed yield per unit is predicted to be 3.14 tons per hectare [12]. - In April 2025, Canada's soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes decreased by 7.2% and 10.27% respectively compared to the previous month [13]. - Ukraine's 2025/26 rapeseed price increased, and the estimated production is 3.25 million tons, lower than the 2024/25 level [14]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On May 26, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 24,100 tons, a decrease of 42% compared to the previous trading day [16]. - On May 26, the trading volume of soybean meal was 114,600 tons, a decrease of 76,800 tons compared to the previous day [16]. - The operating rate of all - sample oil mills was 66.73%, an increase of 2.86% compared to the previous day [17]. - As of May 23, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils was 1.8018 million tons, a decrease of 0.37% compared to the previous week [17]. - As of May 23, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil was 338,700 tons, a decrease of 5.84% compared to the previous week [17]. - As of May 23, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 697,200 tons, an increase of 6.23% compared to the previous week [17]. - It is expected that the imported soybean arrivals in June and July will be 12 million tons and 9.5 million tons respectively, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills will increase significantly [17]. 04 Macroeconomic News International News - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 94.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 5.6% [21]. - The EU plans to accelerate trade negotiations with the US, and Trump postponed the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on the EU to July 9 [21]. - OPEC+ adjusted the July production decision - making meeting to May 31, and there are rumors that the daily production may increase by 411,000 barrels in July [21]. Domestic News - On May 26, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was 7.1833, a decrease of 86 points [23]. - On May 26, the central bank conducted 382 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 247 billion yuan [23]. 05 Supply - Demand Reports - Malaysia's April palm oil ending inventory increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, with a negative impact on the market [24]. - The USDA May report adjusted the 24/25 US soybean exports upward and the ending inventory downward. The 25/26 US soybean ending inventory estimate was lower than market expectations, with a positive impact [25]. 06 Capital Flow - On May 26, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 10.219 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.48 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net outflow of 11.699 billion yuan in stock index futures [28].