Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5] 2. Core View - Social inventory is continuously declining, spot supply is tight, and spot premiums are slightly rebounding, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm is poor. Although overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, it does not change the expectation of zinc ingot surplus. TC will continue to rise in June. There is still profit in smelting at the current TC price, and the supply pressure remains. The strong current consumption supports the zinc price to oscillate at a high level, but consumption may be tested in June and may weaken month - on - month after June. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$21.55/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 140 yuan/ton to 22,570 yuan/ton, and the spot premium rose by 30 yuan/ton to 390 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 150 yuan/ton to 22,550 yuan/ton, and the spot premium rose by 20 yuan/ton to 370 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 130 yuan/ton to 22,570 yuan/ton, and the spot premium rose by 40 yuan/ton to 390 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On May 26, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22,155 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 22,185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 142,739 lots, an increase of 15,550 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 118,520 lots, an increase of 4,451 lots from the previous trading day. The highest price during the day was 22,300 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,085 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: As of May 26, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the same period last week. As of May 23, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 153,500 tons, a decrease of 2,725 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Spot Market: Social inventory is continuously declining, leading to tight spot supply and a slight rebound in spot premiums, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low. - Supply: Overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, but it does not change the expectation of zinc ingot surplus. TC will continue to rise in June. There is still profit in smelting at the current TC price, and domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, so there is no condition for TC to be lowered in the short term. - Demand: The strong current consumption supports the zinc price to oscillate at a high level. However, due to the approaching end of the export rush window and possible over - consumption, consumption may weaken month - on - month after June [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5]
新能源及有色金属日报：社会库存持续小幅去化-20250527
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-05-27 07:04