Report Overview - Report Title: "Safe-Haven Sentiment Boosts Domestic Bond Market and Gold - Fixed Income & Macroeconomic Weekly Report (20250519 - 20250525)" - Report Date: May 27, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Hesheng 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the passage of Trump's tax reform bill and the deadlock in US - EU trade negotiations have led to increased market concerns. With the potential escalation of US - EU trade conflicts and the entry of the US debt ceiling issue into the two - party negotiation stage, market risk appetite may decline. This is beneficial for the domestic bond market but may negatively impact the equity market, and gold may continue to benefit [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Stock Market Performance - In the past week (20250519 - 20250525), US stocks declined, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 2.47%, 2.61%, and 2.47% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index dropping 1.33%. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.10% and the FTSE China A50 Index rose 0.08% [3]. - Most A - share sectors declined, with the Wind All - A Index falling 0.63%. Among them, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and Wind Micro - Cap stocks changed by - 0.12%, - 0.18%, - 1.10%, - 1.29%, - 1.52%, and 0.04% respectively. In terms of sector styles, blue - chip and growth stocks in the Shanghai market declined, while in the Shenzhen market, blue - chip stocks rose and growth stocks fell. The North Securities 50 Index dropped 3.68%. Among industries, 9 out of 30 CITIC industries rose, with the top gainers being the comprehensive, pharmaceutical, and automotive industries, all with weekly gains of at least 1.8% [4]. Bond Market Performance - In the past week, the price of interest - rate bonds rose. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures contract rose 0.34% compared to May 16, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond increased by 4.15 BP to 1.7208%. The yields of bonds with maturities of less than 1 year, 10 years, and 30 years increased, while those of other maturities decreased [5]. - The capital price mainly declined. As of May 23, 2025, R007 was 1.6266% (a change of 0.15 BP compared to May 16), DR007 was 1.5860% (a change of - 5.14 BP), and the spread between them widened. The overnight capital costs R001 and DR001 changed by - 3.94 and - 6.61 BP respectively. The central bank had a net injection of 460 billion yuan in the past week. In May, the MLF was over - renewed by 375 billion yuan. The bond market leverage level decreased, with the 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume decreasing from 7.14 trillion yuan on May 16 to 6.72 trillion yuan on May 23 [6]. - US Treasury yields increased, and the yield curve shifted upward. As of May 23, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 8 BP to 4.51% compared to May 16, 2025, and the yields of all maturities increased [7]. Currency and Commodity Market Performance - The US dollar depreciated significantly, with the US Dollar Index dropping 1.84%. The US dollar depreciated against the euro, pound, and yen by 1.76%, 1.89%, and 2.15% respectively. The depreciation against the Chinese yuan was relatively small, with the offshore and onshore exchange rates dropping 0.52% and 0.20% respectively [8]. - Gold prices rose sharply. The London spot gold price rose 5.02% to 3351.00 per ounce. The domestic Shanghai gold price had a relatively smaller increase, with the spot price rising 4.02% to 776.40 yuan per gram and the futures price rising 3.76% to 777.98 yuan per gram [9]. Market - Influencing Events - On May 22, 2025, Trump's tax reform bill, "The One Big Beautiful Bill," passed the US House of Representatives. The bill plans to cut taxes by more than 4 trillion, which has raised concerns about the US fiscal sustainability [10]. - On May 23, 2025, Trump stated that the US - EU trade negotiations had made no progress and proposed a 50% tariff on EU imports starting from June 1. However, he later postponed the tariff to July 9. The US - EU trade negotiations are deadlocked, and future conflicts may escalate [11].
固收、宏观周报：避险情绪提升利好国内债市和黄金-20250527
上海证券·2025-05-27 07:18