山东下游采购价上调，烧碱震荡整理

Report Investment Ratings - PVC: Cautiously bearish [5] - Caustic soda: Neutral [5] Core Views - PVC is facing high supply and inventory pressure, with weak domestic demand and insufficient cost - side support, so its upward space is limited [4][5] - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to remain weak, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases [4][5] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures prices and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,865 yuan/ton (+11), the East China basis was - 125 yuan/ton (-21), and the South China basis was - 65 yuan/ton (-11) [2] - Spot prices: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,740 yuan/ton (-10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,800 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The blue carbon price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,980 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 230 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production was - 621 yuan/ton (+37), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production was - 516 yuan/ton (+10), and the PVC export profit was 7.2 dollars/ton (+6.8) [2] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - plant PVC inventory was 38.7 tons (-1.9), the social PVC inventory was 37.8 tons (-2.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 73.19% (-2.33%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 72.90% (+2.84%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 73.11% (-0.90%) [2] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 60.3 tons (-2.9) [2] Caustic Soda - Futures prices and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,486 yuan/ton (+29), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 202 yuan/ton (+2) [2] - Spot prices: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 860 yuan/ton (+10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,420 yuan/ton (+20) [3] - Upstream production profit: The profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,696 yuan/ton (+31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 833.3 yuan/ton (+31.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 241.28 yuan/ton (+21.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,455.35 yuan/ton (+0.00) [3] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 40.09 tons (-1.50), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories was 2.95 tons (+0.03), and the caustic soda operating rate was 84.10% (+1.50%) [3] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operating rate of alumina was 78.10% (+1.43%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 63.23% (+0.00%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.30% (-0.35%) [3] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: The new maintenance scale is small, the previously maintained devices continue to shut down, the PVC operating rate declines slightly, and the supply pressure remains high due to high production and new capacity expectations [4] - Demand side: The operating rate of downstream PVC product enterprises is at a low level, the operation of PVC pipes, profiles, and films is weakly stable, and the demand side remains weak [4] - Cost side: The upstream calcium carbide market is weakly stable, the ex - factory price drops, and the cost - side support for PVC is insufficient [4] Caustic Soda - Supply side: Some new maintenance enterprises are added, the previously maintained enterprises resume operation, the overall operating rate of caustic soda rises slightly, and the supply pressure remains high due to new capacity expectations [4] - Demand side: The alumina price rises, the production profit is significantly repaired, and the operating rate is expected to rise, which may support the caustic soda price in the short term; non - aluminum downstream demand remains weak [4] - Inventory: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreases slightly [4] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish, with prices expected to remain weakly at the bottom in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand recovery [5] - Caustic soda: Neutral, with prices expected to continue the weakly volatile trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment sustainability and alumina capacity resumption progress [5]