MEITUAN(03690) 招商证券·2025-05-27 08:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [1][3] Core Insights - Meituan's Q1 2025 revenue reached 86.56 billion, representing an 18.1% year-on-year growth, with operating profit at 10.57 billion, up 102.8%, and adjusted net profit at 10.95 billion, increasing by 46.2% [1][6] - The report expresses long-term optimism regarding the company's domestic core business barriers and growth potential, alongside new growth opportunities from overseas expansion [1][6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2023: 276.85 billion - 2024: 337.59 billion - 2025E: 390.78 billion - 2026E: 451.15 billion - 2027E: 513.08 billion - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 26%, 22%, 16%, 15%, and 14% respectively [2][9] - Adjusted Net Profit: - 2023: 23.25 billion - 2024: 43.77 billion - 2025E: 42.79 billion - 2026E: 56.37 billion - 2027E: 70.15 billion - Notable growth of 709% in 2023, followed by 88% in 2024, with a slight decline of 2% expected in 2025 [2][11] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023: 3.79 - 2024: 7.13 - 2025E: 6.97 - 2026E: 9.19 - 2027E: 11.43 [2][11] - Valuation Ratios: - P/E (adjusted): 40.8 in 2023, decreasing to 13.5 by 2027 - P/B: 4.9 in 2023, decreasing to 2.3 by 2027 [2][10] Business Segment Performance - Core Local Business: - Q1 revenue of 64.32 billion, up 17.8%, with operating profit of 13.49 billion, a 39.1% increase [6] - New Business: - Q1 revenue of 22.23 billion, up 19.2%, with an operating loss of 2.27 billion [6] - Delivery and Flash Purchase: - Q1 delivery volume growth remained stable despite competitive pressures, with a projected increase in Q2 [6] - International Expansion: - Keeta is set to enter the Brazilian market, with a planned investment of 1 billion USD over five years [6]