贸易谈判展望与地缘因素仍相对多变
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-05-27 07:56
- Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bullish rating for both gold and silver, and suggests going long on the gold-silver ratio at low levels and selling put options [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - The passage of Trump's "Beautiful Big Bill" has raised concerns about US government debt, and the relatively poor long-term US Treasury bond auctions and reports of the Fed's potential bond-buying plan have supported the price of gold. Silver also maintains a relatively strong trend as gold prices rise, but there are doubts about the performance of the photovoltaic sector in the second half of the year [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The fourth round of Japan-US tariff negotiations is scheduled for the 30th, and the Japanese government plans to use 900 billion yen in national funds to mitigate the impact of US tariffs. The EU's "zero-tariff for zero-tariff" proposal is still on the table, and the EU plans to accelerate negotiations with the US. Trump Media & Technology Group plans to raise about $3 billion for cryptocurrency investments. Geopolitical tensions include preparations to strike Israel and a refusal to halt uranium enrichment. Western countries have removed the range limit on weapons aid to Ukraine [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 26, 2025, the Shanghai Gold futures main contract opened at 785.00 yuan/gram and closed at 777.30 yuan/gram, down 0.36% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 296,331 lots, and the open interest was 216,132 lots. The night session closed at 779.72 yuan/gram, down 0.23% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai Silver futures main contract opened at 8,251 yuan/kg and closed at 8,280 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 687,113 lots, and the open interest was 371,701 lots. The night session closed at 8,294 yuan/kg, up 0.29% from the afternoon session [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 26, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.51%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.51%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract, the number of long positions decreased by 23 lots, and the number of short positions increased by 243 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 539,548 lots, down 4.97% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the number of long positions was 136 lots, and the number of short positions increased by 171 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 925,933 lots, down 9.09% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position remained unchanged at 922.46 tons, and the silver ETF position remained unchanged at 14,217.50 tons compared to the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On May 26, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -3.76 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -474.18 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main gold and silver futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 93.88, down 0.56% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 100.67, up 0.51% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On May 26, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 61,062 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 325,264 kg, down 12.69% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,166 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 89,820 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 770 yuan/gram and 775 yuan/gram. Silver: It is also recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 7,950 yuan/kg and 8,000 yuan/kg. Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio at low levels. Options: Sell put options [8]