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煤炭行业周报：守得明月见日开，基本面拐点逐渐清晰-20250527
国泰海通证券·2025-05-27 07:58

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - Coal prices have stabilized at the bottom, with expectations of a turning point in June as national temperatures rise and inventory decreases [3] - The report continues to recommend key companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company [4] - April coal production data indicates a significant decline, reflecting the pressure on profitability due to rapid price drops [4] - The report anticipates a rebound in thermal coal prices starting in June, driven by demand recovery and supply adjustments [5] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Data Tracking - As of May 23, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Huanghua Port (Q5500) is 621 CNY/ton, down 3 CNY/ton (-0.5%) from the previous week [9] - The report notes a decrease in coal production across most provinces, with a national production of 390 million tons in April, down 50 million tons from March [4][4] - Daily iron and steel production has shown signs of reaching a peak, with average daily pig iron production at 2.435 million tons, down 12,000 tons from the previous week [5] Coking Coal Data Tracking - The price of coking coal at major ports remains stable, with slight declines noted [43] - As of May 23, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port (Shanxi origin) is 1300 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [41] - The report highlights a decrease in coking coal inventory at major ports, with a total of 2.94 million tons, down 1.9% from the previous week [63] Market Overview - The report indicates that the overall coal market is experiencing a supply contraction faster than expected, with May production likely to decline further compared to April [4] - The report emphasizes that the domestic supply of coal remains stable while imports are expected to decrease [5] - The report also notes that the price of Australian coking coal has decreased, with the landed price at 203 USD/ton, down 1 USD/ton (-0.5%) [53]