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AI产业高景气持续,算力国产化大势所趋
山西证券·2025-05-27 08:21

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for the computer AI computing industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1][2]. Core Insights - The AI industry continues to experience high prosperity, with a strong trend towards domestic computing power localization. The demand for AI computing power is driven by both the internet sector and intelligent computing centers, with rapid advancements in domestic procurement of AI chips [1][3][20]. Summary by Sections 1. AI Industry Prosperity and Localization - The demand for computing power and localization are the two main factors driving the rapid development of domestic AI computing. The investment in foundational model training is expected to increase significantly, with spending projected to rise from 1billionin2023to1 billion in 2023 to 6.5 billion in 2024, a 5.5-fold increase [13][20]. - Internet companies are continuously investing in large model training, with capital expenditures expected to grow by 163% year-on-year in 2024. The demand for inference models is anticipated to become a major driver of AI computing power spending [22][24]. - The construction of intelligent computing centers is accelerating, with a significant increase in project bidding since 2023. The domestic AI chip procurement rate in these centers is expected to rise as government policies support localization [20][34]. 2. AI Chips: Domestic Replacement Opportunities - Nvidia currently dominates the domestic AI chip market, holding an 85% share in 2022, while domestic brands accounted for only 10%. However, by 2024, domestic AI chip shipments are expected to reach 270,000 units, with local brands capturing approximately 30% of the market [36][37]. - The tightening of U.S. export controls on high-performance AI chips is creating opportunities for domestic manufacturers to increase their market share. Major internet companies are beginning to scale up their procurement of domestic AI chips, with ByteDance reportedly ordering over 100,000 units of the domestic Ascend 910B chip [28][39]. 3. AI Servers: Market Dynamics - The AI server market is expected to grow rapidly, with the market size projected to reach $25.3 billion by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 20% from 2024 to 2028. The demand for AI servers is driven by both traditional server manufacturers and domestic ODM companies entering the market [5][6]. - The Ascend series of chips is gaining market share, with significant growth in procurement from internet companies and intelligent computing centers. The report highlights the performance improvements of domestic chips, which are increasingly seen as viable alternatives to Nvidia's offerings [5][6][20].