债市独稳全球不确定性仍然存在

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The overall performance of major asset classes shows that the bond market remains stable, while the stock and commodity markets decline. The A-share market may experience short-term high-level fluctuations, but the medium- and long-term trend is stable and positive. The bond market is stable and improving, and the commodity market is in a low position with precious metals rising alone unable to rescue the market [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Performance of Major Asset Classes - The A-share market rose slightly in the first half of the week and then fell back. The bond market is relatively stable due to its low risk, while the commodity market is still oscillating at the bottom. The sudden change in the Middle East situation has cast a shadow over the international crude oil market, and the repeated fluctuations in gold prices have added more uncertainties to the commodity market [2][10]. 2. Equity Market Core View - The A-share market climbed in the first half of the week and then fell back, remaining in a short-term oscillation range. Although the international situation shows signs of stability and relaxation, there are still local hidden dangers. However, with the implementation of domestic policies, the medium- and long-term trend of the A-share market is stable and positive. The technology sector is expected to have a continuous market, and the consumption sector has great potential [13][14]. Allocation Suggestion - In the short term, the market fundamentals are good, and policies are expected to drive funds into the market. The consumption and technology sectors are expected to lead the market out of the short-term oscillation. A dumbbell strategy is recommended, grasping the opportunities in the technology and consumption sectors while retaining the allocation of the dividend sector [3][15]. 3. Bond Market Tracking Core View - The bond market is stable and improving. The central bank conducted a 500 billion MLF operation, and the issuance scale of bond ETFs continued to break through. With the injection of funds, the bond market will have continuous opportunities in the short term [4][38]. Bond Market Allocation Suggestion - In general, the bond market is still a stable allocation product for investors in the short term, but the medium- and long-term logic of the bond market has not been verified, and relatively flexible short-term bonds are more popular in the market [7][38]. 4. Commodity Market Tracking Core View - The commodity market rose and then fell again, remaining in a low position. The significant decline in metal products is the main reason for the market's decline. Gold has rebounded, but it is unable to drive the commodity market up. In the short term, gold may fluctuate at a high level, and it still has allocation value in the medium and long term [8][47]. Commodity Allocation Suggestion - It is recommended to maintain the allocation of gold in the short term and continue to observe in the medium and long term [8][48].