基础化工行业简评：农达诉讼事件推演，有望长期推动草铵膦市场

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [16]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Bayer is seeking a settlement regarding the Roundup herbicide litigation, which could impact the demand for glyphosate in North America and potentially benefit domestic glyphosate producers in China [7]. - Glyphosate and glufosinate prices are currently at low levels, with domestic prices for glyphosate (95%) at 23,500 CNY/ton and glufosinate (95%) at 46,000 CNY/ton as of May 25, 2025 [7]. - The report suggests that if Roundup sales are restricted, China's glyphosate export demand may increase, providing a short-term boost to the domestic glyphosate industry [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the potential long-term benefits for glufosinate as it may replace glyphosate as a primary herbicide due to its unique mechanism of action and environmental safety [7]. - Historical price trends for glyphosate are reviewed, showing significant fluctuations influenced by production capacity changes and market demand [7]. Price and Inventory Analysis - As of May 25, 2025, domestic glyphosate and glufosinate inventories have decreased from their peak levels, with glyphosate inventory at 60,300 tons and glufosinate at 9,870 tons [7]. - The report indicates that glyphosate prices have been volatile, with a notable increase in 2020 due to supply chain disruptions and rising raw material costs [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Xingfa Group, which has the largest domestic glyphosate capacity (230,000 tons/year), and Lier Chemical, which produces 23,500 tons/year of glufosinate [7].