Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-27 09:35Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the polysilicon industry. 2. Core View The polysilicon market is facing significant pressure on the demand side, with high inventory levels and a weak outlook. The supply side is experiencing reduced production due to low prices and high costs, while demand from downstream industries is also weakening. The introduction of new policies and a slowdown in global photovoltaic installation growth are further dampening demand. The report recommends a short - selling strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - Futures Market: The main contract closing price of polysilicon was 35,290 yuan/ton, up 405 yuan; the main contract position was 80,800 lots, up 2,449 lots. The 06 - 07 month contract spread was 2,100 yuan/ton, up 995 yuan, and the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread was 27,850 yuan/ton, up 575 yuan [3]. - Spot Market: The spot price of polysilicon was 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon was 29 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon was 31.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feed polysilicon was 32.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.29 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars. The basis of polysilicon was 410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - Upstream Situation: The main contract closing price of industrial silicon was 7,440 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the spot price was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon was 335,750 tons, up 46,400 tons, and the total social inventory was 582,000 tons, down 17,000 tons [3]. - Industry Situation: The monthly output of polysilicon was 97,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 2,906 tons, down 222 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 5.01 US dollars/kg, down 0.13 US dollars; the monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [3]. - Downstream Situation: The monthly output of solar cells was 78,444,000 kilowatts, up 11,443,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 95,373,120 units, up 24,038,530 units; the monthly import volume was 9,846,120 units, down 2,122,260 units, and the monthly average import price was 0.27 US dollars/unit, up 0.01 US dollars. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 22.29, down 0.62 [3]. 3.2 Market News As of May 26, the mainstream market prices of P - type cauliflower - type polysilicon, N - type dense - type polysilicon, N - type re - feed polysilicon, N - type granular silicon, and N - type polysilicon were all stable [3]. 3.3 Viewpoint Summary - Supply Side: All polysilicon manufacturers are operating at reduced loads. The anticipation of new production capacity is increasing, and most enterprises are in a stage of losing cash costs, with some even suspending the production line of delivery products [3]. - Demand Side: The downstream photovoltaic module production schedule has been reduced, and the demand has weakened. Silicon wafer enterprises have lowered their self - regulatory quotas, the price and production schedule of N - type silicon wafers have declined, and battery enterprises also have production reduction plans. After the "rush - to - install" boom in the terminal market, the wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and the purchasing enthusiasm is low [3]. - Policy Aspect: Newly installed photovoltaics need to enter the electricity spot market starting from June 1, which has led to a decline in yields and a "531 rush - to - install" wave, but the demand is expected to enter a vacuum period in the third quarter [3]. - Global Market: The photovoltaic installation growth rates in major markets such as China, Europe, and the United States have slowed down, with only sporadic bright spots in regions like India and the Middle East [3]. 3.4 Key Focus There is no news today [3].