Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-27 09:34Report Overview - The report is a PVC industry daily report dated May 27, 2025, released by Ruida Futures Co., Ltd. [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - V2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with support around 4750 yuan/ton. The supply side shows a decrease in PVC capacity utilization rate last week, while the demand side has a slight increase in downstream开工率. The inventory is in a destocking trend with limited pressure. However, factors such as the strengthening of caustic soda spot, potential passive increase in PVC supply due to liquid chlorine backlog, digestion of previous macro - positive factors, approaching traditional consumption off - season, and uncertainties in export markets and cost fluctuations will affect the market. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4793 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan; the trading volume is 839,870 lots, up 175,748 lots; the open interest is 1,018,526 lots, up 51,238 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 57,580 lots, down 20,462 lots. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices of ethylene - based PVC in East and South China remain unchanged, while the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China drops by 5 yuan/ton. The Chinese CIF price of PVC rises by 10 dollars/ton to 710 dollars/ton, and other international prices remain stable. The basis of PVC is - 119 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in Central, North, and Northwest China all decline, with decreases of 50 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged. The CFR mid - prices of VCM in the Far East and Southeast Asia change, with a decrease of 14 dollars/ton in the Far East and an increase of 9 dollars/ton in Southeast Asia. The CFR mid - prices of EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia remain unchanged. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.19%, down 1.51%. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC drops by 2.88% to 74.81%, while the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC rises by 2.05% to 79.78%. The total social inventory of PVC is 37.75 tons, down 1.96 tons, with a decrease in East China and an increase in South China. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.86, down 0.1. The cumulative values of new housing construction area, real - estate construction area, and real - estate development investment all increase. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of PVC increase, while the implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options decrease. [3] 3.7 Industry News - On May 27, the ex - warehouse spot exchange price of Changzhou PVCSG5 drops by 30 - 80 yuan/ton. From May 17 to 23, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 76.19%, down 1.51% month - on - month and up 0.67% year - on - year. As of May 22, the social inventory of PVC decreases by 2.84% month - on - month to 62.33 tons, down 29.49% year - on - year. [3]