瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20250527

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a cautious bearish view on the plastics industry, suggesting to pay attention to the support around 6980 [2] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the industry supply pressure is not significant due to frequent shutdowns and restarts of plants; in the medium - to - long - term, there is an expected increase in supply as the marginal loss of maintenance weakens. The downstream demand is in the off - season and is difficult to improve significantly, although pre - holiday packaging demand is released and packaging film orders increase slightly while pipe orders decline slightly. The cost is affected by factors such as OPEC+ production increase and the postponement of US - EU tariff negotiations, and the plastics fundamentals are weak. However, the 09 contract has a discounted price on the disk, so a cautious bearish view is taken [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices of polyethylene contracts all decreased, with the main contract closing at 7007 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan; the 1 - month contract at 6979 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 5 - month contract at 6986 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; and the 9 - month contract at 7007 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan. The trading volume was 360383 lots, an increase of 30078 lots, and the open interest was 527221 lots, an increase of 13567 lots. The 1 - 5 month contract spread was - 7, down 18. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 85471 lots, a decrease of 11546 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7260 yuan/ton, down 35.65 yuan; in East China, it was 7446.34 yuan/ton, down 25.12 yuan. The basis was 180, down 30.65 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore was 61.11 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.67 US dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 566.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.75 US dollars. The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 851 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 781 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 77.95%, a decrease of 1.57 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film was 49.19%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points; the operating rate of polyethylene pipes was 32%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the operating rate of polyethylene agricultural film was 14.05%, a decrease of 2.63 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 14.75%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.68%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 12.95%, an increase of 1.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 12.94%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From May 16th to 22nd, China's polyethylene production was 59.80 tons, a decrease of 1.98% compared to the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 77.95%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.13% compared to the previous period. As of May 21st, the sample inventory of polyethylene production enterprises was 49.84 tons, a decrease of 5.57% compared to the previous period; as of May 16th, the sample inventory of polyethylene social warehouses was 61.06 tons, a decrease of 1.15% compared to the previous period [2]