光大期货软商品日报-20250527

Group 1: Research Views - Cotton's short - term outlook is for low - level oscillation. On Monday, ICE US cotton rose 0.66% to 66.06 cents/pound, CF509 fell 0.3% to 13385 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 2270 lots to 575,400 lots. The Xinjiang cotton arrival price dropped to 14504 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B dropped to 14606 yuan/ton. Macro factors and US cotton - growing area weather are key factors. In the domestic market, new cotton is growing normally, demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing. There is neither strong upward nor downward drive [1]. - Sugar's short - term trend is also expected to be oscillatory. The USDA predicts that the 2025/26 global sugar production will increase by 8.6 million tons to 189.3 million tons. Brazilian and Indian production increases will offset the EU's decline. Spot sugar prices in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased slightly. The market will focus on Brazil's crushing progress, and with future imported sugar arrivals, market sentiment will be under pressure [1]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 7 - 9 spread is - 215 with a 10 - point increase, the main contract basis is 1221 with a 23 - point increase. Xinjiang's spot price is 14504 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease, and the national price is 14606 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan decrease [2]. - For sugar, the 7 - 9 spread is 88 with a 10 - point increase, the main contract basis is 325 with a 2 - point decrease. Nanning's spot price is 6155 yuan/ton unchanged, and Liuzhou's is 6160 yuan/ton unchanged [2]. Group 3: Market Information - On May 26, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 11343, a decrease of 16 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 348 [3]. - On May 26, cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 14504 yuan/ton, Henan 14662 yuan/ton, Shandong 14609 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 14823 yuan/ton [3]. - On May 26, the yarn comprehensive load was 55.3 (unchanged), the yarn comprehensive inventory was 23.5 (up 0.3), the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52.8 (down 0.1), and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.8 (up 0.2) [3]. - On May 26, the spot sugar prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were unchanged at 6155 yuan/ton and 6160 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - On May 26, the sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 32244 (unchanged), and the valid forecast was 0 [4]. Group 4: Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards related to sugar analysis [18]. - Zhang Linglu, a master of accounting and finance from the University of Bristol, is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures, responsible for research on urea, soda - ash glass, etc., and has won many industry awards [19]. - Sun Chengzhen, a financial master from Yunnan University, is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures, mainly engaged in fundamental research on cotton, cotton yarn, etc., and has won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile product senior analyst title [20].