Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-27 09:46Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The supply of live pigs has increased due to the increased willingness of breeders and second - fatteners to sell last week, with the slaughter volume accelerating and the slaughter weight increasing slightly. The supply pressure may temporarily ease at the end of the month, but the medium - term supply pressure is expected to increase in the second and third quarters. The demand has recovered to some extent due to pre - festival stocking before the Dragon Boat Festival, but the increase in demand is less than that in supply, resulting in a weak adjustment of live pig prices. The live pig futures main contract closed down 0.29%, showing a weak adjustment at a low level. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the live pig futures main contract was 13,560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 79,267 lots, up 680 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 490 lots, down 210 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 11,705 lots, up 581 lots; the main contract of live pig futures closed down 0.29% [2]. Spot Price - The live pig price in Henan Zhumadian was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Jilin Siping was 14,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu was 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract basis was 1,040 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory was 41,7310,000 heads, down 10,120,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows was 4,0390,000 heads, down 270,000 heads; the CPI year - on - year was - 0.1%, unchanged; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn was 2,376.27 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 939.75, up 3.15; the monthly output of feed was 27,772,000 tons, down 664,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows was 1,641 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 16.06 yuan/head, down 64.26 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was 48.21 yuan/head, down 32.45 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork was 80,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chicken in the main production areas was 13.4 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 3,0630,000 heads, up 8,860,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 416.7 billion yuan, down 6.8 billion yuan; on May 27, 2025, the daily slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide was 267,843 heads, down 0.64% from the previous day [2]. Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 3,0630,000 heads, up 8,860,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 416.7 billion yuan, down 6.8 billion yuan [2]. Industry News - The willingness of breeders and second - fatteners to sell increased last week, the slaughter volume accelerated, and the slaughter weight increased slightly, increasing market supply. However, the slaughter rhythm may slow down at the end of the month, and the supply pressure may temporarily ease. In the medium term, the supply pressure is expected to increase in the second and third quarters. The approaching Dragon Boat Festival has led to a recovery in terminal demand in some areas, and the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has rebounded [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The increase in the slaughter volume of breeders and the fact that the increase in demand is less than that in supply have led to a weak adjustment of live pig prices. However, the slowdown of the slaughter rhythm at the end of the month may limit the short - term decline. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [2].