瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250527
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 27, the I2509 contract decreased with reduced positions. The third round and fourth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections have been fully launched. In terms of supply and demand, the current iron ore shipments have decreased while arrivals have increased, and domestic port inventories have declined for three consecutive weeks. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills decreased by 0.46%, and molten iron production decreased by 1.17 tons, with a continued downward trend expected, weakening demand support. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are moving downward. The operation suggestion is to sell on rebounds, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 698.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.00 yuan; the position volume is 721,004 lots, a decrease of 10,680 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 34.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 29,721 lots, a decrease of 8,283 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt is 1,900.00 lots, unchanged. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 is 96.05 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.02 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 802 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 14 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 782 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 13 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 690 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 11 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 83 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 97.65 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.30 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.52, an increase of 0.06. The estimated import cost is 825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The weekly shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore is 3,188.70 tons, a decrease of 159.10 tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,344.10 tons, an increase of 63.70 tons. The weekly inventory at 45 ports is 13,987.83 tons, a decrease of 178.26 tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills is 8,925.48 tons, a decrease of 35.68 tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore is 10,314.00 tons, an increase of 917.00 tons. The available days of iron ore are 18.00 days, a decrease of 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 42.44 tons, an increase of 0.78 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines is 66.95%, an increase of 0.54%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 59.40 tons, a decrease of 4.01 tons. The BDI index is 1,340.00, unchanged. The freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 18.84 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.02 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.05 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.67%, a decrease of 0.46%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 91.30%, a decrease of 0.44%. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 8,602 tons, a decrease of 682 tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.25%, an increase of 0.09%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 24.07%, an increase of 0.09%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.66%, an increase of 0.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.15%, an increase of 0.39% [2] 3.6 Industry News - On May 27, the National Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters Office and the Ministry of Emergency Management organized a special joint consultation on flood control with meteorological, water conservancy, natural resources, housing and urban - rural development, transportation and other departments, conducted video dispatches to Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou and other provinces, studied and judged the development trend of flood conditions, and deployed flood control work in key areas. The National Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters launched a level - IV emergency response for flood control in Jiangxi, Guangxi, Guizhou and other provinces, and sent 2 working groups to key areas to assist in guiding flood control and disaster relief work. From May 19 to May 25, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 3,188.7 tons, a decrease of 159.1 tons compared with the previous period. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,729.2 tons, an increase of 23.1 tons compared with the previous period. The total shipments from Australia were 1,970.8 tons, an increase of 143.0 tons compared with the previous period, and the shipments from Australia to China were 1,742.5 tons, an increase of 163.5 tons compared with the previous period. The total shipments from Brazil were 758.3 tons, a decrease of 120.0 tons compared with the previous period [2]