瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250527

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the content [1][2][3] Group 2: Report Core View - The price of lead has been falling, causing the loss pressure of secondary lead to expand. Secondary lead smelters are forced to lower their operating rates due to losses and raw material constraints. The 1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton today, while the price of waste batteries has generally stabilized, with individual smelters adjusting prices by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. On the demand side, downstream battery factories' recent raw material procurement rhythm has not changed significantly, mainly maintaining just - in - time procurement. The market trading performance is rather weak. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory is accumulating, and demand is significantly affected by tariffs; domestic inventory is slightly decreasing, but overseas prices are suppressing the upward space of domestic prices. From the perspective of lead concentrate processing fees, although there is no fluctuation, they remain at a low level, which has a partial impact on the subsequent resumption of work of secondary and primary lead. The operation suggestion is to go short on rallies [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract is 16,825 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 1,994 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars. The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts of Shanghai lead is 15 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest is 69,256 lots, down 4,036 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 450 lots, up 1,819 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 37,299 tons, up 2,015 tons. The SHFE inventory is 48,428 tons, down 7,044 tons; the LME lead inventory is 294,025 tons, down 1,800 tons. The spot price of 1 lead on SMM is 16,625 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,920 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The basis of the lead main contract is - 200 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the LME lead (0 - 3) spread is - 17.65 US dollars/ton, up 4.72 US dollars. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 15,945 yuan, down 133 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,620 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The WBMS lead supply - demand balance is - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons. The number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, up 3. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 54.41%, up 18.29 percentage points. The monthly output of secondary lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 73.88%, down 0.78 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 34,300 tons, down 200 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 20 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] Industrial Situation - The refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,019.64 yuan/ton, down 46.43 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450,000 pieces, down 425,000 pieces. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,550 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The Shenwan Industry Index of batteries and other power sources is 1,644.63 points, down 0.77 points. The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2] Industry News - Trump is considering withdrawing $3 billion in funding from Harvard University and distributing it to schools across the country. The fourth - round Japan - US tariff negotiation is scheduled for the 30th, and the Japanese government plans to use 900 billion yen in national funds to ease the impact of US tariffs. The EU spokesman said that the EU's "zero - tariff for zero - tariff" proposal in the negotiation with the US is still on the table, and the EU has planned to speed up the negotiation with the US. A new Gaza cease - fire agreement will include Israel's "partial withdrawal". Iran is fully prepared to strike Israel appropriately and will not accept suspending uranium enrichment to reach a nuclear agreement with the US [2]