瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250527

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The SH2509 contract of caustic soda is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with support around 2410 and resistance around 2520 [3]. - The profit of the chlor - alkali industry is considerable, driving an increase in supply. Some plants in North and East China plan to increase production this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise month - on - month [3]. - The profit of the alumina industry has recovered, but the scale of resumption of production is not yet obvious. The supply contraction of Guinea ore restricts the increase in the alumina开工率 and increases the unit consumption of caustic soda, which has no obvious positive or negative impact on caustic soda in the short term [3]. - Some non - aluminum industries are entering the off - season, with limited caustic soda consumption demand, and non - aluminum downstream demand is mainly based on rigid needs [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda futures contract was 2449 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan; the trading volume was 487,939 lots, an increase of 70,069 lots; the open interest was 197,653 lots, an increase of 5,440 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 futures traders was - 20,979 lots, a decrease of 10,607 lots [3]. - The closing price of the January caustic soda futures contract was 2394 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2441 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 880 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 950 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2750 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 yuan; the basis was 301 yuan/ton, an increase of 99 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The price of steam coal was 659 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was - 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86 yuan [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From May 16th to 22nd, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 84.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% [3]. - As of May 22nd, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide was 400,900 tons (wet weight), a month - on - month decrease of 3.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.25% [3].