烧碱产业风险管理日报-20250527

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term fundamentals support the market, with no obvious pressure on the spot side and no clear downward drivers. In the medium - long term, there is production pressure, which limits the price ceiling, and the market is expected to be volatile [3] - Bullish factors include short - term stable fundamentals, many upcoming maintenance plans, improved alumina profits with复产 expectations, and improved non - aluminum export situation [3] - Bearish factors are medium - long - term oversupply pressure, expected concentrated production on the supply side, and insufficient demand growth to support a market reversal [3] Group 3: Price Forecast and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2400 - 2600. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 24.53%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 50.1% [4] Strategy Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2509) to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2600 - 2650. They can also sell call options (SH509C2600) to collect premiums, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 60 - 70 [4] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2509) to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2350 - 2400. They can also sell put options (SH509P2400) to collect premiums, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 90 - 100 [4] Group 4: Futures and Spot Market Data Futures Market - On May 27, 2025, the prices of caustic soda 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 2441, 2449, and 2394 respectively, with daily changes of - 59 (- 2.36%), - 37 (- 1.49%), and - 62 (- 2.52%) compared to May 26 [4] - The month - spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) were - 8, 55, and - 47 respectively, with daily changes of - 22, 25, and - 3 [4] - The 05, 09, and 01 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) were 371.5, 363.5, and 418.5 respectively, with daily changes of 121.5, 99.5, and 124.5 [4] Spot Market Liquid Caustic Soda - In Shandong, the 32 - alkali ex - factory prices of Jinling, Haihua, Lutai, and Hengtong on May 27, 2025 were 2813, 2875, 2719, and 2781 respectively, with daily changes of 62.5 (2.3%), 62.5 (2.2%), 31.25 (1.2%), and 62.5 (2.3%) [5][6] - In other regions, the prices of some brands remained unchanged on May 27 compared to May 26 [6] Caustic Soda Flakes - The market prices of caustic soda flakes in most regions remained stable on May 22 compared to May 21, except for a 25 (0.7%) increase in the Southwest region [6] Group 5: Price Difference - On May 27, 2025, the price differences such as Shandong 50 - alkali - 32 - alkali, Jiangsu 49 - alkali - 32 - alkali, etc. showed different daily changes. For example, Shandong 50 - alkali - 32 - alkali decreased by 62.5, while Jiangsu 49 - alkali - 32 - alkali remained unchanged [7]