宝城期货有色日报-20250527

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Copper: Today, copper prices fluctuated downward and rebounded in the afternoon. The main contract price has certain support at the 78,000 level. Macroscopically, the domestic sentiment weakened today, and non - ferrous metals generally declined. Recently, the weak operation of the index is beneficial to copper prices. Industrially, the marginal increase in inventory last week put pressure on the futures price, but on the 26th, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 141,100 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last week, which is beneficial to copper prices. In the short term, continue to focus on the long - short game at the 78,000 level, and it is expected that the futures price will oscillate strongly [5]. - Aluminum: Today, aluminum prices dived in the morning and then stabilized in the range of 20,000. Macroscopically, the domestic sentiment weakened today, and non - ferrous metals generally declined. Industrially, benefiting from good downstream demand, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to decline at a low level. On the 26th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 540,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from last week. It is expected that the futures price will remain strong, and the technical support at the 20,000 mark can be concerned [6]. - Nickel: Today, nickel prices oscillated weakly, and the main contract price stabilized at the 122,000 level with a slight increase in open interest. Last week, nickel prices oscillated weakly, and the price center moved down. In the short term, the upstream of nickel is strong and the downstream is weak, showing a neutral state with weak price drivers; in the long term, it is bearish, and the price center continues to decline. Technically, the short - term nickel price broke through the 123,000 mark downward, and it is expected that the futures price will operate weakly [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - Copper: On May 27, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to April 2025, the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry achieved an operating income of 2,959.46 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.0%; the operating cost was 2,795.27 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.5%; the total profit was 91.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 24.5%. From January to April, the non - ferrous metal mining and dressing industry achieved an operating income of 128.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.0%; the operating cost was 74.78 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%; the total profit was 36.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 47.8%. On May 26, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued an announcement on the release of the "Regulations on the Management of Non - Ferrous Metal Delivery Commodities of the Shanghai Futures Exchange" (Revised Edition in May 2025). On May 26, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 141,100 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the 19th and a decrease of 2,600 tons from the 22nd [9]. - Aluminum: On May 26, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 540,000 tons, a decrease of 17,900 tons from the 22nd and a decrease of 47,000 tons from the 19th [9]. - Nickel: On May 27, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2506 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,280 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +350 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,430 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,680 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,180 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Relevant Charts - Copper: The report includes charts such as copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14] - Aluminum: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, alumina inventory [24][26][29] - Nickel: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41]