货币市场跟踪及研判：上周央行持续净投放流动性，存单利率短期存压

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the central bank continuously net - injected liquidity, but the money market was not significantly loosened due to tax payments. This week, the money market may face challenges due to factors such as reverse - repurchase maturities, government bond payments, and cross - month fund demand [4]. - Deposit and other bank liability - side interest rates are still on a downward trend. After the LPR and deposit rate cuts last week, it is expected that deposit rates will continue to decline [4]. - In the long - term, certificate of deposit (CD) rates will decline, but there is upward pressure in the short - term. The large - scale maturity and renewal of CDs in June may push up short - term CD rates [5]. - In the second quarter, the adjustment range of the bond market is controllable, and upward adjustments present trading opportunities. In the short - term, interest - rate bonds may fluctuate within a narrow range, while in the long - term, bond yields are expected to decline [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Money Market - Last week, the central bank conducted 500 billion yuan of MLF operations (estimated net MLF injection of 375 billion yuan in May), and the total net open - market liquidity injection was 960 billion yuan. The reverse - repurchase maturity scale this week has increased from 486 billion yuan last week to 946 billion yuan [4]. - After the RRR and interest rate cuts in May, the overnight fund rate quickly dropped to 1.60%, and the CD rate dropped to around 1.65% and has remained at this level for nearly three weeks [5]. Deposit Rates - Last week, the LPR and deposit rate cuts were implemented, with a decline of about 10BP, consistent with the policy rate cut. The decline in long - term deposit rates slightly exceeded expectations [4]. Certificate of Deposit Rates - In June, the maturity scale of inter - bank deposits has increased significantly from 2.5 trillion yuan in May to 4.14 trillion yuan, increasing the pressure on renewal [5]. - Since the beginning of this year, the liabilities of state - owned and joint - stock banks have been tight. After the RRR and interest rate cuts in May, the spread between the 10 - year Treasury bond and the 1 - year state - owned and joint - stock bank CD turned positive [5]. Interest - Rate Bonds - Since April, due to external demand pressure and the unstable domestic fundamentals, the second - quarter domestic hedging policies have been further strengthened. After the RRR and interest rate cuts, the bond market pricing is more influenced by fundamentals, and interest - rate bonds may fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term [6]. - In the long - term, due to issues such as employment, real estate, and population structure, the market interest rate is expected to decline. It is recommended to conduct band trading on 10 - year Treasury bonds in the range of 1.60% - 1.70% and maintain a neutral duration [6].