棉花产业风险管理日报-20250527

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the unexpected reduction of Sino-US tariffs is beneficial to the recovery of China's textile and clothing export market, the current industrial performance shows limited order increments. During the off - season of demand, the driving force for cotton price rebound is still insufficient, and cotton prices will continue to face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to abnormal weather in cotton - producing areas and the progress of US foreign tariff negotiations [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - Price Range Forecast: The monthly cotton price is predicted to be in the range of 12,800 - 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1172 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.279 [3] - Inventory Management Strategies - When inventory is high and there are concerns about cotton price drops, sell 50% of CF2509 Zhengzhou cotton futures in the range of 13,600 - 13,800 to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, sell 75% of CF509C13800 call options in the range of 200 - 250 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if cotton prices rise [3] - Procurement Management Strategies - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy 50% of CF2509 Zhengzhou cotton futures in the range of 12,600 - 12,800 to lock in procurement costs. Sell 75% of CF509P12800 put options in the range of 150 - 200 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if cotton prices fall [3] 3.2 Core Contradictions and Market Influencing Factors - Likely Positive Factors - In the 24/25 season, cotton in northern Xinjiang has high impurity content, leading to a shortage of high - quality resources. Most of the remaining cotton is held by large ginning enterprises and traders, resulting in a strong cotton basis. - Downstream gauze factories have a high overall operating load and have a rigid demand for restocking [5] - Likely Negative Factors - The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and some new cotton has not been hedged. - It is the traditional off - season for the downstream market. The export order increment brought by the reduction of Sino - US tariffs is limited, downstream sales are slow, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment due to frequent policy changes [6] 3.3 Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Futures Prices and Changes - Cotton 01 closed at 13,385, down 50 (-0.37%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,385, down 60 (-0.45%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,330, down 55 (-0.41%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 0, down 0 (-100%); Cotton yarn 05 closed at 0, down 0 (-100%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,530, down 55 (-0.28%) [7][8] - Price Spreads - Cotton basis was 1,265, up 44; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 0, up 10; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 55, down 5; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 55, down 5; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,200, down 10; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,111, down 90; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 695, down 30 [8] 3.4 Internal and External Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 14,595, down 11 (-0.08%); CCI 2227B was priced at 12,773, down 5 (-0.04%); CCI 2129B was priced at 14,871, down 13 (-0.09%); FCI Index S was priced at 13,670, unchanged; FCI Index M was priced at 13,495, unchanged; FCI Index L was priced at 13,304, unchanged [9]