Xiangyu(SH:600057) Xinda Securities·2025-05-27 11:51Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Xiamen Xiangyu, is positioned as a leading player in the bulk supply chain industry, focusing on expanding its supply chain services and achieving stable growth through industry chain extension [5][15]. - The company has shown steady revenue and net profit growth from 2011 to 2024, with compound annual growth rates of +20.1% and +17.3%, respectively. However, it experienced a decline in net profit in 2024 due to industry chain impacts [5][21]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the company's performance as industrial enterprises benefit from a series of incremental policies aimed at restoring efficiency [5][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiamen Xiangyu is transforming into a global supply chain service provider, having shifted its focus from real estate to bulk commodity supply chain management and logistics since its establishment in 1992 [16]. - The company has developed a comprehensive supply chain service model that includes procurement, distribution, logistics, and supply chain finance, aiming to become a world-class supply chain service enterprise [15][16]. Industry Analysis - The bulk supply chain industry is transitioning from a traditional trading model to a comprehensive service model, with profitability increasingly derived from service revenues rather than price differences [29][32]. - The industry is experiencing a rise in concentration, with the market share of the top five companies (CR5) increasing from 4.81% in 2021 to 5.26% in 2024, indicating a trend towards greater market dominance by leading firms [37][40]. Company Advantages - The company is expanding its supply chain service categories, which is expected to lead to steady growth in overall business volume and profit margins per ton [44]. - Xiamen Xiangyu's logistics business is also growing, with a reported revenue of 9.422 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.0% [7][8]. - The company has entered the manufacturing sector, particularly in shipbuilding, which provides a stable profit base and enhances its ability to withstand market fluctuations [8][9]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects the company's net profit for 2025 to be 1.741 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of +22.7%, +15.9%, and +15.8% for the following years [9][10]. - The estimated price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.08, 9.55, and 8.25, respectively, indicating potential investment value [9][10].