黑色产业数据每日监测-20250527

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall black - series commodity futures declined on May 27. The steel price continued to move down, and the market sentiment was pessimistic due to the second - round proposed price cut of coke. The supply of raw coal was strong while the demand was weak, and the market participants were in a wait - and - see state. The coking coal futures were expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Overview - On May 27, the black - series commodity futures declined. The rebar closed at 2980 yuan/ton, down 1.23%; the hot - rolled coil closed at 3111 yuan/ton, down 1.33%; the iron ore closed at 698.5 yuan/ton; and the coking coal and coke continued to fall [1] Market Analysis - The steel price continued to decline, and the steel mills proposed a second - round price cut of coke by 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The coke futures price hit a 9 - year low, and the coking coal futures price rebounded after an early - morning decline. After the first - round price cut, the profit of coking enterprises turned negative. Both coking and steel enterprises had a negative attitude towards purchasing raw coal, and the inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises decreased by 2.17% to 865.73 million tons. The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines decreased by 3% to 86.3%, the raw coal inventory increased by 18 million tons to 624.8 million tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 37.1 million tons to 447.5 million tons. The trading volume of coking coal online auctions decreased, with a flow - auction ratio of 51.9%, a 11.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [1] Investment Suggestions - For iron ore, pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices. For rebar, investors should take a short - term shock approach and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. For hot - rolled coil, investors should take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and pay attention to supply - demand changes. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1] Summary - The market supply - demand relationship had no obvious change, and the market sentiment was weak under the expectation of the second - round price cut of coke. The terminal market was in a wait - and - see state, and the seasonal demand was weak. The coking coal futures were expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]