美股策略：市场进入观察期，美股反弹是逃命波？

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent rebound in the US stock market is questioned as a potential "dead cat bounce" amid ongoing trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties [5][11][12] - The S&P 500 index experienced a decline of 2.6% last week, halting a rebound that had been ongoing since mid-April, primarily due to poor US Treasury auction results and renewed trade war threats from Trump [11][12][29] - The market remains cautious, with investors closely monitoring developments in the trade war and the Federal Reserve's communications [5][11] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US retail sales showed a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1% in April, which was slightly above market expectations, but several categories, particularly those reliant on imports, saw declines [34][35] - Consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan, has been on a downward trend, dropping from 57.0 in March to 50.8 in May, indicating persistent weakness in consumer sentiment [34][35] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in April, which was below expectations, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a significant drop of 0.4%, the largest monthly decline since 2015 [40][41] Group 3: Credit Risk and Market Sentiment - The upward trend in credit risk spreads typically lasts over six months and is associated with bear markets, indicating a potential negative cycle in corporate fundamentals and market sentiment [16][17] - Current credit spreads are rising, suggesting that market volatility may continue into the second or third quarter of 2025 [16][17] - The recent downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's reflects concerns over rising debt levels and expanding budget deficits, which could further impact market confidence [29][30] Group 4: Trade War Implications - The trade war narrative remains central to market movements, with recent negotiations between the US and China leading to a temporary reduction in tariffs, which briefly boosted the S&P 500 index [11][12] - The potential for increased tariffs on EU goods and non-US produced products has raised fears of a broader trade conflict, which could significantly impact bilateral trade and market stability [11][12][46] - The upcoming legislative discussions regarding the "Beautiful Act" could exacerbate the federal deficit, complicating the economic landscape further [24][25]